{"id":38009,"date":"2026-05-29T19:33:40","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T19:33:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/volity.io\/unkategorisiert\/what-is-kelly-criterion\/"},"modified":"2026-06-04T13:21:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T13:21:00","slug":"what-is-kelly-criterion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/glossar\/what-is-kelly-criterion\/","title":{"rendered":"Was ist das Kelly-Kriterium"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Wie das Kelly-Kriterium funktioniert<\/h2>\n<p>Das Kelly-Kriterium ist eine Formel, die den optimalen Kapitalanteil berechnet, den man auf eine Wette riskieren sollte, gegeben Vorteil und Quote. Es maximiert das langfristige Wachstum und vermeidet mathematisch den Ruin, indem es jede Position im Verh\u00e4ltnis zum tats\u00e4chlichen Vorteil dimensioniert. Je gr\u00f6\u00dfer und verl\u00e4sslicher Ihr Vorteil, desto mehr sagt Kelly zu setzen; ohne Vorteil sagt es, nichts zu setzen.<\/p>\n<h2>Rechenbeispiel<\/h2>\n<p>Angenommen, eine Strategie gewinnt 55 % der Zeit bei 1:1-Quote. Kelly schl\u00e4gt vor, etwa 10 % des Kapitals je Trade zu riskieren (der Vorteil, 10 %, geteilt durch die Quote). Das ist aggressiv: eine Verlustserie schnitte trotzdem tief, weshalb die meisten Profis einen Bruchteil von Kelly nutzen, oft ein Viertel oder die H\u00e4lfte, um die <a href=\"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/glossar\/what-is-drawdown\/\">Drawdowns<\/a> zu mildern und den Gro\u00dfteil des Wachstums zu behalten.<\/p>\n<h2>Warum volles Kelly zu aggressiv ist<\/h2>\n<p>Volles Kelly nimmt an, Sie kennen Ihre echte Trefferquote und Quote genau, was in echten M\u00e4rkten nie der Fall ist, also \u00fcbersetzt es routinem\u00e4\u00dfig und erzeugt brutale Drawdowns. Auf Volity ist die praktische Lehre das Prinzip, nicht die rohe Zahl: erh\u00f6hen Sie die Gr\u00f6\u00dfe, wenn Ihr Vorteil stark ist, senken Sie sie, wenn er schwach ist, und setzen Sie nie so viel, dass eine normale Verlustserie das Konto bedroht. Fraktionales Kelly ist der \u00fcbliche Kompromiss.<\/p>\n<h2>Warum das wichtig ist<\/h2>\n<p>Kelly ist die rigorose Antwort auf die wichtigste Frage im Trading, wie viel zu riskieren, und es beweist, dass sowohl \u00dcber- als auch Unterwetten langfristiges Wachstum kostet. Nutzen Sie es als Obergrenze und Disziplin, nicht als w\u00f6rtliche Anweisung. Siehe auch: <a href=\"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/glossar\/what-is-position-sizing\/\">Positionsgr\u00f6\u00dfe<\/a> und <a href=\"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/glossar\/what-is-risk-reward-ratio\/\">Risiko-Ertrags-Verh\u00e4ltnis<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Mehr dazu auf unserer <a href=\"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/trading-lernen\/\">Trading-lernen-Seite<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wie das Kelly-Kriterium funktioniert Das Kelly-Kriterium ist eine Formel, die den optimalen Kapitalanteil berechnet, den man auf eine Wette riskieren sollte, gegeben [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":38156,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"custom_schema":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[259],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-glossar"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.3 (Yoast SEO v28.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Was ist das Kelly-Kriterium<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Das Kelly-Kriterium dimensioniert Wetten f\u00fcr maximales geometrisches Wachstum. 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