{"id":38009,"date":"2026-05-29T19:33:40","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T19:33:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/volity.io\/unkategorisiert\/what-is-kelly-criterion\/"},"modified":"2026-05-29T19:33:55","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T19:33:55","slug":"what-is-kelly-criterion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/glossar\/what-is-kelly-criterion\/","title":{"rendered":"Was ist das Kelly-Kriterium"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>So funktioniert es<\/h2>\n<p>Kelly-Anteil = (Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit \u00d7 Gewinnbetrag \u2212 Verlustwahrscheinlichkeit \u00d7 Verlustbetrag) \/ Gewinnbetrag. Vereinfacht f\u00fcr ein bin\u00e4res Ergebnis: f = (p \u00d7 b \u2212 q) \/ b, wobei p die Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit, q die Verlustwahrscheinlichkeit (1 \u2212 p) und b das Verh\u00e4ltnis Gewinnbetrag zu Verlustbetrag ist. Das Ergebnis ist der Anteil des Bankrolls, den Sie wetten sollten. Negative Ausgabe hei\u00dft kein Edge; nicht wetten.<\/p>\n<h2>Beispiel<\/h2>\n<p>Ihre Strategie hat 55 Prozent Trefferquote und ein durchschnittliches Gewinn-zu-Verlust-Verh\u00e4ltnis von 2:1. Kelly-Anteil = (0,55 \u00d7 2 \u2212 0,45) \/ 2 = 0,325 oder 32,5 Prozent. Die Mathematik sagt, 32,5 Prozent des Kapitals pro Wette zu riskieren f\u00fcr maximales langfristiges Wachstum. Die meisten Praktiker nutzen Fraktion-Kelly (halb oder viertel Kelly), weil das volle Kelly perfekte Kenntnis von Wahrscheinlichkeit und Auszahlung voraussetzt, die Trader selten haben.<\/p>\n<h2>Warum es wichtig ist<\/h2>\n<p>Kelly ist mathematisch optimal f\u00fcr Compounding, wenn Eingaben pr\u00e4zise bekannt sind. In der Praxis werden sowohl Trefferquote als auch Auszahlungsverh\u00e4ltnis aus Vergangenheitsdaten gesch\u00e4tzt und k\u00f6nnen nach oben verzerrt sein. Trading bei vollem Kelly verst\u00e4rkt Sch\u00e4tzfehler zu Ruin-Risiko. Dimensionierung bei halbem Kelly beh\u00e4lt den Gro\u00dfteil des geometrischen Wachstumsvorteils mit deutlich niedrigerem Drawdown. Nutzen Sie Kelly als Decke, nicht als Ziel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>So funktioniert es Kelly-Anteil = (Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit \u00d7 Gewinnbetrag \u2212 Verlustwahrscheinlichkeit \u00d7 Verlustbetrag) \/ Gewinnbetrag. Vereinfacht f\u00fcr ein bin\u00e4res Ergebnis: f = (p [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":38156,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"custom_schema":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[259],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-glossar"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Was ist das Kelly-Kriterium<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Das Kelly-Kriterium dimensioniert Wetten f\u00fcr maximales geometrisches Wachstum. 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Die meisten nutzen halben Kelly in der Praxis.","yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"","yoast_wpseo_opengraph-title":"","yoast_wpseo_opengraph-description":"","yoast_wpseo_twitter-title":"","yoast_wpseo_twitter-description":""},"yoast_title":"","yoast_metadesc":"Das Kelly-Kriterium dimensioniert Wetten f\u00fcr maximales geometrisches Wachstum. Die meisten nutzen halben Kelly in der Praxis.","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38009","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38009"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38009\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38010,"href":"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38009\/revisions\/38010"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38156"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38009"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38009"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volity.io\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38009"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}