{"id":38011,"date":"2026-05-29T19:33:40","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T19:33:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/volity.io\/sin-categorizar\/what-is-kelly-criterion\/"},"modified":"2026-06-04T11:44:27","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T11:44:27","slug":"what-is-kelly-criterion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/volity.io\/es\/glosario\/what-is-kelly-criterion\/","title":{"rendered":"Qu\u00e9 es el criterio de Kelly"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>C\u00f3mo funciona el criterio de Kelly<\/h2>\n<p>El criterio de Kelly es una f\u00f3rmula que calcula la fracci\u00f3n \u00f3ptima de capital a arriesgar en una apuesta, dada su ventaja y sus probabilidades. Maximiza el crecimiento a largo plazo evitando matem\u00e1ticamente la ruina, dimensionando cada posici\u00f3n en proporci\u00f3n a la ventaja que de verdad tienes. Cuanto mayor y m\u00e1s fiable sea tu ventaja, m\u00e1s dice Kelly que apuestes; sin ventaja, dice que no apuestes nada.<\/p>\n<h2>Ejemplo num\u00e9rico<\/h2>\n<p>Sup\u00f3n que una estrategia gana el 55 % de las veces a probabilidades 1:1. Kelly sugiere arriesgar alrededor del 10 % del capital por operaci\u00f3n (la ventaja, 10 %, dividida por las probabilidades). Eso es agresivo: una racha de p\u00e9rdidas a\u00fan cortar\u00eda hondo, por lo que la mayor\u00eda de los profesionales usan una fracci\u00f3n de Kelly, a menudo un cuarto o la mitad, para suavizar los <a href=\"https:\/\/volity.io\/es\/glosario\/what-is-drawdown\/\">drawdowns<\/a> conservando la mayor parte del crecimiento.<\/p>\n<h2>Por qu\u00e9 el Kelly pleno es demasiado agresivo<\/h2>\n<p>El Kelly pleno supone que conoces tu verdadera tasa de aciertos y probabilidades con exactitud, lo que en los mercados reales nunca ocurre, as\u00ed que sobreapuesta de forma rutinaria y produce drawdowns brutales. En Volity, la lecci\u00f3n pr\u00e1ctica es el principio, no el n\u00famero crudo: aumenta el tama\u00f1o cuando tu ventaja es fuerte, red\u00facelo cuando es d\u00e9bil, y nunca apuestes tanto que una racha perdedora normal amenace la cuenta. El Kelly fraccionario es el compromiso habitual.<\/p>\n<h2>Por qu\u00e9 importa<\/h2>\n<p>Kelly es la respuesta rigurosa a la pregunta m\u00e1s importante del trading, cu\u00e1nto arriesgar, y demuestra que tanto sobreapostar como infraapostar cuestan crecimiento a largo plazo. \u00dasalo como techo y como disciplina, no como instrucci\u00f3n literal. V\u00e9ase tambi\u00e9n: <a href=\"https:\/\/volity.io\/es\/glosario\/what-is-position-sizing\/\">tama\u00f1o de la posici\u00f3n<\/a> y <a href=\"https:\/\/volity.io\/es\/glosario\/what-is-risk-reward-ratio\/\">relaci\u00f3n riesgo-beneficio<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>M\u00e1s en nuestra p\u00e1gina de <a href=\"https:\/\/volity.io\/es\/aprender-trading\/\">aprender trading<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>C\u00f3mo funciona el criterio de Kelly El criterio de Kelly es una f\u00f3rmula que calcula la fracci\u00f3n \u00f3ptima de capital a arriesgar [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":38156,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"custom_schema":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[260],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-glosario"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Qu\u00e9 es el criterio de Kelly<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"El criterio de Kelly dimensiona apuestas para maximizar el crecimiento geom\u00e9trico. 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