{"id":38007,"date":"2026-05-29T19:33:40","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T19:33:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/volity.io\/non-classifiee\/what-is-kelly-criterion\/"},"modified":"2026-06-04T11:44:22","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T11:44:22","slug":"what-is-kelly-criterion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/volity.io\/fr\/glossaire\/what-is-kelly-criterion\/","title":{"rendered":"Qu&rsquo;est-ce que le crit\u00e8re de Kelly"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Comment fonctionne le crit\u00e8re de Kelly<\/h2>\n<p>Le crit\u00e8re de Kelly est une formule qui calcule la fraction optimale de capital \u00e0 risquer sur un pari, selon son avantage et sa cote. Il maximise la croissance de long terme tout en \u00e9vitant math\u00e9matiquement la ruine, en dimensionnant chaque position en proportion de l&rsquo;avantage r\u00e9el que vous avez. Plus votre avantage est grand et fiable, plus Kelly dit de miser ; sans avantage, il dit de ne rien miser.<\/p>\n<h2>Exemple chiffr\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>Supposons qu&rsquo;une strat\u00e9gie gagne 55 % du temps \u00e0 cote 1:1. Kelly sugg\u00e8re de risquer environ 10 % du capital par trade (l&rsquo;avantage, 10 %, divis\u00e9 par la cote). C&rsquo;est agressif : une s\u00e9rie de pertes creuserait quand m\u00eame profond, raison pour laquelle la plupart des pros utilisent une fraction de Kelly, souvent un quart ou la moiti\u00e9, pour adoucir les <a href=\"https:\/\/volity.io\/fr\/glossaire\/what-is-drawdown\/\">drawdowns<\/a> tout en gardant l&rsquo;essentiel de la croissance.<\/p>\n<h2>Pourquoi le Kelly plein est trop agressif<\/h2>\n<p>Le Kelly plein suppose que vous connaissez exactement votre vrai taux de r\u00e9ussite et votre cote, ce qui sur les march\u00e9s r\u00e9els n&rsquo;arrive jamais, donc il surmise r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement et produit des drawdowns brutaux. Sur Volity, la le\u00e7on pratique est le principe, pas le nombre brut : augmentez la taille quand votre avantage est fort, r\u00e9duisez-la quand il est faible, et ne misez jamais tant qu&rsquo;une s\u00e9rie perdante normale menace le compte. Le Kelly fractionnaire est le compromis habituel.<\/p>\n<h2>Pourquoi c&rsquo;est important<\/h2>\n<p>Kelly est la r\u00e9ponse rigoureuse \u00e0 la question la plus importante du trading, combien risquer, et il prouve que surmise comme sous-mise co\u00fbtent de la croissance de long terme. Servez-vous-en comme plafond et comme discipline, pas comme instruction litt\u00e9rale. \u00c0 lire aussi : <a href=\"https:\/\/volity.io\/fr\/glossaire\/what-is-position-sizing\/\">dimensionnement de position<\/a> et <a href=\"https:\/\/volity.io\/fr\/glossaire\/what-is-risk-reward-ratio\/\">ratio risque-r\u00e9compense<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Pour aller plus loin, voir notre page <a href=\"https:\/\/volity.io\/fr\/apprendre-le-trading\/\">apprendre le trading<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Comment fonctionne le crit\u00e8re de Kelly Le crit\u00e8re de Kelly est une formule qui calcule la fraction optimale de capital \u00e0 risquer [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":38156,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"custom_schema":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[258],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-glossaire"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.8 (Yoast SEO v28.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Qu&#039;est-ce que le crit\u00e8re de Kelly<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le crit\u00e8re de Kelly dimensionne les paris pour maximiser la croissance g\u00e9om\u00e9trique. 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