{"id":38007,"date":"2026-05-29T19:33:40","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T19:33:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/volity.io\/non-classifiee\/what-is-kelly-criterion\/"},"modified":"2026-05-29T19:33:48","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T19:33:48","slug":"what-is-kelly-criterion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/volity.io\/fr\/glossaire\/what-is-kelly-criterion\/","title":{"rendered":"Qu&rsquo;est-ce que le crit\u00e8re de Kelly"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Comment \u00e7a fonctionne<\/h2>\n<p>Fraction de Kelly = (Probabilit\u00e9 de Gain \u00d7 Montant de Gain \u2212 Probabilit\u00e9 de Perte \u00d7 Montant de Perte) \/ Montant de Gain. Simplifi\u00e9 pour un r\u00e9sultat binaire : f = (p \u00d7 b \u2212 q) \/ b, o\u00f9 p est la probabilit\u00e9 de gain, q est la probabilit\u00e9 de perte (1 \u2212 p), et b est le ratio gain sur perte. Le r\u00e9sultat est la fraction du bankroll \u00e0 miser. Un output n\u00e9gatif signifie pas d&rsquo;edge ; ne pas parier.<\/p>\n<h2>Exemple<\/h2>\n<p>Votre strat\u00e9gie a 55 pour cent de taux de r\u00e9ussite et un ratio moyen gain\/perte de 2:1. Fraction de Kelly = (0,55 \u00d7 2 \u2212 0,45) \/ 2 = 0,325 soit 32,5 pour cent. Le math dit de risquer 32,5 pour cent du capital sur chaque pari pour la croissance long terme maximale. La plupart des praticiens utilisent une fraction de Kelly (demi ou quart de Kelly) car le Kelly complet suppose une connaissance parfaite de la probabilit\u00e9 et du paiement, que les traders ont rarement.<\/p>\n<h2>Pourquoi c&rsquo;est important<\/h2>\n<p>Kelly est math\u00e9matiquement optimal pour le compounding quand les entr\u00e9es sont connues pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment. En pratique, taux de gain et ratio de paiement sont estim\u00e9s depuis des donn\u00e9es pass\u00e9es et peuvent \u00eatre biais\u00e9s \u00e0 la hausse. Trader au Kelly complet amplifie l&rsquo;erreur d&rsquo;estimation en risque de ruine. Dimensionner \u00e0 demi Kelly conserve l&rsquo;essentiel de l&rsquo;avantage de croissance g\u00e9om\u00e9trique avec un drawdown substantiellement plus bas. Utilisez Kelly comme plafond, pas comme cible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Comment \u00e7a fonctionne Fraction de Kelly = (Probabilit\u00e9 de Gain \u00d7 Montant de Gain \u2212 Probabilit\u00e9 de Perte \u00d7 Montant de Perte) [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":38156,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"custom_schema":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[258],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-glossaire"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Qu&#039;est-ce que le crit\u00e8re de Kelly<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le crit\u00e8re de Kelly dimensionne les paris pour maximiser la croissance g\u00e9om\u00e9trique. 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