{"id":49833,"date":"2026-08-05T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/volity.io\/?p=49833"},"modified":"2026-08-05T13:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T13:00:00","slug":"prediction-market-odds-explained","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/volity.io\/sw\/trader\/prediction-market-odds-explained\/","title":{"rendered":"Odds za Soko la Utabiri Zimeelezwa: Kusoma Bei Kama Uwezekano"},"content":{"rendered":"

Soko la utabiri halinukuu odds. Hunukuu bei, na bei hiyo tayari inabeba jibu ambalo watu wengi wanalitafuta. Hisa inayogharimu $0.35 ni soko likisema kuna nafasi ya takriban 35%, kwa sababu kila hisa hulipa $1.00 kamili endapo tokeo litatokea na sifuri endapo halitatokea. Kujifunza jinsi ya kusoma odds za soko la utabiri<\/b> kwa kiasi kikubwa ni kujifunza sentensi hiyo moja, kisha kufanya hesabu inayofuata kutoka kwake. Wolfers na Zitzewitz waliweka nadharia iliyo nyuma ya njia hiyo fupi katika Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities<\/a>, wakionyesha kuwa katika kundi pana la mifano bei hukaa karibu na wastani wa imani ya wafanyabiashara waliomo sokoni.<\/p>\n

Kwa kifupi:<\/b> Bei ndiyo uwezekano. Hisa ya $0.35 inaashiria takriban 35%, hugharimu $0.35, nayo hulipa $1.00 au $0.00. Faida yako ikishinda ni $1.00 kutoa ulicholipa, hivyo mapato kwa gharama ni (1 – bei) \/ bei. YES kwa $0.35 na NO kwa $0.65 ni mitazamo miwili ya soko moja, na jozi hiyo hujumlika kuwa $1.00 kila mara. Katika mifumo unayoitumia tayari, $0.35 ni desimali 2.86 na sehemu 13\/7.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Hakuna kilicho hapa ni ushauri binafsi. Mkataba wa tukio unaweza kutatuliwa kwa sifuri, jambo linalomaanisha kupoteza kiasi chote ulicholipa kwa ajili yake.<\/p>\n

Kwa nini bei ndiyo uwezekano<\/h2>\n

Uhusiano kati ya bei na uwezekano si tafsiri aliyoibandika mtu baadaye. Hutokana na malipo yenyewe. Kwa kuwa hisa inayoshinda hukombolewa kwa $1.00 iliyowekwa na hisa inayoshindwa haipati chochote, bei haina pa kukaa isipokuwa mahali fulani kati ya namba hizo mbili. Nyaraka za Polymarket zinaliweka wazi: kila hisa hupangwa bei kati ya $0.00 na $1.00 na bei huwakilisha imani ya soko kuhusu uwezekano wa tokeo hilo<\/a>. Maelezo ya umma ya mdhibiti yanaelezea chombo kilekile kutoka upande wa kisheria, yakifafanua mkataba wa tukio kama derivative iliyojengwa juu ya hali ya ndiyo au hapana yenye malipo yaliyowekwa na tarehe ya kuisha<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Kalshi, jukwaa tofauti linaloendesha muundo uleule, huelezea hesabu kutoka upande mwingine. Kama bei ya Yes ni senti 70 na bei ya No ni senti 30, wanunuzi hao wawili kwa pamoja huchangia $1 kamili<\/a>. Dola hiyo ndiyo kitu kinachopiganiwa. Moja kati ya hisa mbili inazoziunda itakuwa na thamani ya dola nzima na nyingine haitakuwa na thamani yoyote, hivyo mgawanyo kati yao ni kauli kuhusu jinsi kila upande unavyoonekana kuwa na nafasi kwa sasa.<\/p>\n

Kusoma uwezekano kutoka kwenye bei inayofanyiwa biashara ni jambo la kawaida katika fedha za kawaida pia. Bank of England imechapisha kazi kuhusu mgawanyo wa uwezekano unaotokana na options kwa mfumuko wa bei wa baadaye<\/a>, ikitoa mgawanyo kamili wa matokeo yanayotarajiwa kutoka bei za mikataba inayofanyiwa biashara. Mkataba wa tukio hufanya kazi ileile kwa mashine chache mno, kwa sababu malipo yake tayari ni ndiyo au hapana safi.<\/p>\n

Wazo hili limejaribiwa hadharani kwa miongo kadhaa. Iowa Electronic Markets<\/a> yameendesha masoko madogo ya pesa halisi katika Chuo Kikuu cha Iowa tangu mwishoni mwa miaka ya 1980, hasa ili watafiti waweze kukagua kama bei hutabiri tokeo. Wolfers na Zitzewitz wanafupisha ushahidi mpana katika Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice<\/a>, ambapo bei huchukuliwa kama utabiri uliokusanywa na soko badala ya maoni.<\/p>\n

Kugeuza senti kuwa asilimia, na kurudi<\/h2>\n

Ubadilishaji huu ndio hesabu rahisi kuliko zote katika biashara, ndiyo maana huwakwaza watu mara chache mno na huwagharimu sana pale unapowakwaza. Zidisha bei ya dola mara 100 nawe una uwezekano unaoashiriwa kwa asilimia. Gawanya asilimia kwa 100 nawe una bei. Kila senti ya bei ni pointi moja ya asilimia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bei ya hisa<\/th>\nUwezekano unaoashiriwa<\/th>\nBei ya upande mwingine<\/th>\nUwezekano wake unaoashiriwa<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
$0.05<\/td>\n5%<\/td>\n$0.95<\/td>\n95%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$0.25<\/td>\n25%<\/td>\n$0.75<\/td>\n75%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$0.35<\/td>\n35%<\/td>\n$0.65<\/td>\n65%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$0.50<\/td>\n50%<\/td>\n$0.50<\/td>\n50%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$0.72<\/td>\n72%<\/td>\n$0.28<\/td>\n28%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$0.90<\/td>\n90%<\/td>\n$0.10<\/td>\n10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Polymarket huchapisha ramani hiyohiyo katika jedwali lake la marejeo, ikiorodhesha $0.25 kama nafasi ya 25%, $0.50 kama 50% na $0.75 kama 75%<\/a>. Hakuna chochote katika ubadilishaji huo kinachotegemea jukwaa, mali au swali linaloulizwa. Hutegemea tu malipo yaliyowekwa ya $1.00.<\/p>\n

Kipengele kimoja kwenye skrini kinastahili uangalifu kabla hujafanya biashara dhidi yake. Bei moja soko linayokuonyesha kwa kawaida ni ya katikati, si kitu unachoweza kufanyia muamala. Nyaraka za Polymarket zinatoa mfano uliofanyiwa kazi: kama bid bora ni $0.34 na ask bora ni $0.40, bei inayoonyeshwa ni $0.37, nawe utalipa ask ya $0.40 unaponunua au utapokea bid ya $0.34 unapouza. Pengo hilo kati ya bid na ask ndilo spread ya bid na ask<\/a>. Hivyo 37% ya kichwani ni usomaji wa haki wa mahali soko lilipo, ilhali 40% ndio uwezekano ambao ungelazimika kuuzidi ili kununua kuwe na maana.<\/p>\n

Malipo yako yanavyoonekana katika bei yoyote ya kuingia<\/h2>\n
\n \"Mchoro
\n<\/figure>\n

Kila msimamo utakaowahi kuushikilia katika masoko haya huelezwa na kile unacholipa na kile unachokusanya. Unalipa bei. Unapokea $1.00 kwa hisa endapo uko sahihi na $0.00 kwa hisa endapo umekosea. Kingine chote ni kugawanya.<\/p>\n

Anza na hisa. Dau la dola S kwa bei ya dola p hununua hisa S kugawanya p. Likitatuliwa upande wako, hisa hizo hukombolewa kwa $1.00 kila moja, hivyo malipo ni S kugawanya p. Faida ni malipo hayo kutoa dau, na mapato kwa gharama ni (1 – p) kugawanya p. Nyaraka za utatuzi za Polymarket zinaeleza upande wa ukombozi wazi: wenye tokeni zilizoshinda huzikomboa kwa $1 kila moja na tokeni zilizoshindwa hazina thamani<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Hapa kuna dau lilelile la $100 lililowekwa katika bei sita tofauti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bei ya kuingia<\/th>\nHisa kwa $100<\/th>\nMalipo endapo litatokea<\/th>\nFaida endapo litatokea<\/th>\nMapato kwa gharama<\/th>\nHasara endapo halitatokea<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
$0.10<\/td>\n1,000.00<\/td>\n$1,000.00<\/td>\n+$900.00<\/b><\/td>\n900%<\/td>\n-$100.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$0.25<\/td>\n400.00<\/td>\n$400.00<\/td>\n+$300.00<\/b><\/td>\n300%<\/td>\n-$100.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$0.35<\/td>\n285.71<\/td>\n$285.71<\/td>\n+$185.71<\/b><\/td>\n185.7%<\/td>\n-$100.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$0.50<\/td>\n200.00<\/td>\n$200.00<\/td>\n+$100.00<\/b><\/td>\n100%<\/td>\n-$100.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$0.65<\/td>\n153.85<\/td>\n$153.85<\/td>\n+$53.85<\/b><\/td>\n53.8%<\/td>\n-$100.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
$0.90<\/td>\n111.11<\/td>\n$111.11<\/td>\n+$11.11<\/b><\/td>\n11.1%<\/td>\n-$100.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Soma safu mbili za mwisho kwa pamoja. Safu ya $0.90 inatoa 11.1% na safu ya $0.10 inatoa 900%, na upande wa hasara katika zote mbili ni $100 uleule. Kinachobadilika ni mara ngapi kila moja inapaswa kufanikiwa. Kama bei ya $0.90 ni ya kweli, safu hiyo hupoteza kila kitu takriban mara moja kati ya kumi. Iendeshe mara kumi na ushindi tisa wa $11.11 hufika $99.99, ambayo hasara moja ya $100 huifuta na senti moja ya ziada. Mkataba uliopangwa bei kwa haki una thamani inayotarajiwa ya sifuri kabla ya gharama, safu yoyote utakayoichagua. Ni mtazamo uleule unaoendesha uwiano wa hatari na tuzo<\/a> katika soko lolote lile.<\/p>\n

Gharama zipo, na kwenye Polymarket huangukia upande wa taker wa muamala. Fomula iliyochapishwa ni ada = C x feeRate x p x (1 – p), ambapo C ni idadi ya hisa na p ni bei, huku maker wasitozwe kamwe na masoko ya jiosiasa yakiwa bila ada<\/a> (viwango kama vilivyochapishwa tarehe 1 Agosti 2026, navyo hubadilika). Kwenye soko la siasa lenye kiwango cha 0.04, hisa 100 zilizonunuliwa kwa $0.35 hugharimu 100 x 0.04 x 0.35 x 0.65, ambayo ni $0.91. Hiyo hugeuza bei yako halisi ya kuingia kuwa $0.3591 kwa hisa na kusukuma kiwango chako cha kutolipoteza kutoka 35% hadi takriban 35.9%. Fomula ileile hutoa $0.91 kwa $0.65 na $1.00 kwa $0.50, hivyo ada hufikia kilele katikati na hupungua kuelekea kwenye ncha.<\/p>\n

YES kwa $0.35 na NO kwa $0.65 ni soko lilelile<\/h2>\n

Wafanyabiashara wapya mara nyingi huchanganua ukurasa wakitafuta upande wa bei nafuu, kana kwamba $0.35 ni bahati na $0.65 ni ghali. Ni soko lilelile lililoelezwa mara mbili. Kwenye Polymarket soko ni swali moja la kibaimeli lenye matokeo ya Yes na No<\/a>, na hisa hizo mbili huundwa kwa pamoja: dola moja ya dhamana huunda hisa moja ya Yes na hisa moja ya No<\/a>, ambapo moja tu kati yake itakuwa na thamani ya $1.00.<\/p>\n

Panga miamala hiyo miwili sambamba na ulinganifu unakuwa kamili.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Kwa hisa<\/th>\nNunua YES kwa $0.35<\/th>\nNunua NO kwa $0.65<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Gharama kwa hisa<\/td>\n$0.35<\/td>\n$0.65<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Uwezekano unaoashiriwa<\/td>\n35%<\/td>\n65%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Faida kwa hisa endapo litatokea<\/td>\n+$0.65<\/b><\/td>\n-$0.65<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Faida kwa hisa endapo halitatokea<\/td>\n-$0.35<\/td>\n+$0.35<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mapato kwa gharama ukiwa sahihi<\/td>\n185.7%<\/td>\n53.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kikubwa unachoweza kupoteza kwa hisa<\/td>\n$0.35<\/td>\n$0.65<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Mnunuzi wa YES anahatarisha senti 35 ili kushinda 65. Mnunuzi wa NO anahatarisha senti 65 ili kushinda 35. Jumlisha hatari hizo mbili nawe unapata $1.00 ambayo mmoja wao ataikusanya. Hakuna upande ulio nafuu au ghali peke yake, na swali pekee linalostahili kuulizwa ni kama 35% ni ndogo mno au kubwa mno kwa tukio lililo mbele yako.<\/p>\n

Ulinganifu huo pia unaeleza kitu kinachoonekana kama bidhaa mbili tofauti. Kununua hisa ya YES kwa $0.35 na kuuza hisa ya NO kwa $0.65 hukuacha katika msimamo unaofanana kabisa: senti 65 juu endapo tukio litatokea, senti 35 chini endapo halitatokea. Miingiliano huviita hivi kwa majina tofauti, na wafanyabiashara wanaotoka kwenye asili ya odds zilizowekwa mara nyingi husoma kimoja kama kuunga mkono na kingine kama kupinga. Kwenye order book<\/a> ni mwanya mmoja.<\/p>\n

Kubadilisha kuelekea mifumo ya odds unayoijua tayari<\/h2>\n
\n \"Chati
\n<\/figure>\n

Kama umetumia muda karibu na sportsbook nchini Uingereza, Ayalandi, Australia au Afrika Kusini, bei ya senti itahisi kama kipimo kisicho sahihi mwanzoni. Tafsiri hufanyika kwa fomula fupi.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Odds za desimali ni jumla ya mapato kwa kipimo kimoja kilichowekwa dau, pamoja na dau lenyewe, hivyo desimali = 1 kugawanya bei. Hisa ya $0.35 ni 1 \/ 0.35 = 2.86.<\/li>\n
  2. Odds za sehemu ni faida kwa kipimo kimoja kilichowekwa dau, hivyo sehemu = (1 – bei) kugawanya bei. Hisa ya $0.35 ni 0.65 \/ 0.35 = 13\/7, ambayo bookmaker angeizungusha hadi karibu na 15\/8.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Zote hufanya kazi kinyume kwa urahisi uleule. Kutoka odds za desimali, bei = 1 \/ desimali, hivyo 4.00 ni $0.25. Kutoka odds za sehemu a\/b, bei = b \/ (a + b), hivyo 3\/1 ni 1 \/ 4 = $0.25 na 5\/2 ni 2 \/ 7 = $0.29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Bei ya hisa<\/th>\nUwezekano unaoashiriwa<\/th>\nOdds za desimali<\/th>\nOdds za sehemu<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
    $0.10<\/td>\n10%<\/td>\n10.00<\/td>\n9\/1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    $0.20<\/td>\n20%<\/td>\n5.00<\/td>\n4\/1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    $0.25<\/td>\n25%<\/td>\n4.00<\/td>\n3\/1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    $0.35<\/td>\n35%<\/td>\n2.86<\/td>\n13\/7 (takriban 15\/8)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    $0.50<\/td>\n50%<\/td>\n2.00<\/td>\n1\/1 (sawa kwa sawa)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    $0.65<\/td>\n65%<\/td>\n1.54<\/td>\n7\/13 (takriban 8\/15)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    $0.80<\/td>\n80%<\/td>\n1.25<\/td>\n1\/4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    $0.90<\/td>\n90%<\/td>\n1.11<\/td>\n1\/9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    Tofauti moja hunusurika ubadilishaji, nayo ndiyo inayostahili kujulikana. Bei ya odds zilizowekwa ina marjini iliyookwa ndani yake. Watafiti wanaofanya kazi na takwimu za kamari huelezea marekebisho ya kawaida: uwezekano wa kushinda unaoashiriwa hupatikana kwa kugawanya odds kinyume kwa booksum, yaani jumla ya odds kinyume, ili uwezekano unaoashiriwa ujumlike kuwa 1<\/a>. Wanahitaji hatua hiyo kwa sababu namba ghafi hujumlika kuwa zaidi ya 1. Nukuu 1.80 na 2.10 kwenye swali lenye njia mbili na uwezekano unaoashiriwa ni 55.56% na 47.62%, jumla ya 103.17%, na pointi 3.17 za ziada ndiyo marjini.<\/p>\n

    Order book haifanyi kazi hivyo, kwa sababu pande hizo mbili ni nusu mbili za dola moja. Gharama ya kuvuka hujitokeza kwenye spread badala yake. Kama ask bora ya YES ni $0.53 na ask bora ya NO ni $0.49, kununua zote mbili kungegharimu $1.02 ili kuhakikisha kurudi kwa $1.00, yaani gharama ya senti mbili kwa safari ya kwenda na kurudi. Bid zinazolingana, $0.51 na $0.47, huakisiana kabisa, na katikati zake hujumlika kuwa $1.00 kamili. Msuguano uleule, mahali tofauti, nao unaonekana badala ya kufichwa.<\/p>\n

    Kwa nini bei husogea kabla ya lolote kutokea<\/h2>\n

    Bei inayoteleza kimyakimya kutoka $0.42 hadi $0.47 bila kichwa cha habari chochote huwachanganya wanaotarajia uwezekano ubaki tuli hadi habari zifike. Bei husogea kwa sababu soko ni mnada wa moja kwa moja, si utabiri uliochapishwa. Polymarket huelezea order book yake kama utaratibu ambapo bei hazipangwi na jukwaa bali huibuka kutokana na ugavi na mahitaji wakati watumiaji wanapofanyiana biashara<\/a>. Mtu anayetaka ukubwa sasa hivi huchukua ofa zilizopo, na bei huishia pale muuzaji wa mwisho aliyekuwa tayari alipokuwa amesimama.<\/p>\n

    Muda wenyewe pia husogeza bei. Mkataba wa kitu kinachotatuliwa baada ya miezi kumi na moja na ule unaotatuliwa Alhamisi vinaweza kubeba bei ileile ya 60% na kutenda kwa namna tofauti kabisa, kwa sababu tarehe ya mwisho inapokaribia, wigo wa mambo yanayoweza bado kubadilisha jibu hupungua. Bei huelekea kuteleza kuelekea $1.00 au $0.00 dirisha linapofungwa, na msimamo uliokuwa kimya kwa miezi unaweza kusogea senti kadhaa kwa siku katika wiki ya mwisho.<\/p>\n

    Liquidity nayo husogeza bei, nayo huzungumziwa kwa uchache zaidi. Kwenye soko jembamba agizo moja kubwa linaweza kutembeza kitabu senti kadhaa, na bei inayochapishwa baadaye huakisi haraka ya mfanyabiashara mmoja badala ya mabadiliko yoyote duniani. Kukagua kina cha soko<\/a> katika pande zote mbili kabla ya kusoma msogeo kama taarifa ni tabia inayostahili kujengwa.<\/p>\n

    Usomaji potofu wa kawaida unaogharimu pesa<\/h2>\n

    Makosa ghali zaidi katika chombo hiki ni makosa ya kusoma badala ya makosa ya kutabiri. Haya ndiyo yanayojirudia.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Kuchukulia bei inayoonyeshwa kama bei yako ya kujazwa.<\/b> Skrini inaonyesha bei ya katikati. Wewe hununua kwa ask na huuza kwa bid, na kwenye soko pana pengo kati ya hizo mbili linaweza kuwa na thamani kubwa kuliko faida yako.<\/li>\n
    2. Kusoma $0.90 kama uhakika. Ni madai kwamba takriban moja kati ya kumi kati ya haya hushindwa, na $100 yote huondoka pale linaposhindwa.<\/li>\n
    3. Kuchanganya msogeo wa bei na msogeo wa uwezekano. Msogeo kutoka $0.05 hadi $0.10 huongeza pesa zako mara mbili na huongeza pointi tano za asilimia za uwezekano. Namba hizo mbili zinaelezea vitu tofauti na moja tu kati yake ndiyo mapato yako.<\/li>\n
    4. Kuwinda upande wa bei nafuu. Kila YES ina NO kwa dola moja kutoa bei, hivyo hakuna upande wa bei nafuu, bali upande unaoudhani umepangwa bei vibaya.<\/li>\n
    5. Kudhani unaweza kutoka kwa bei iliyonukuliwa kila mara. Kuuza kabla ya utatuzi kunaruhusiwa kwenye majukwaa haya, lakini kitabu chembamba kinaweza kisichukue ukubwa wako popote karibu na bei ya katikati.<\/li>\n
    6. Kuruka kanuni za utatuzi. Kichwa cha habari huuliza swali na kanuni ndizo zinazoliamua, ikiwemo jinsi kuchelewa, kufutwa au tokeo lenye utata linavyoshughulikiwa. Kuzisoma huchukua dakika mbili na humaliza mabishano kabla hayajagharimu chochote.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Kabla ya kununua, andika uwezekano ambao wewe mwenyewe ungeuweka kwenye tukio, kisha ulinganishe na ask badala ya bei ya katikati. Kama unadhani tukio lina nafasi ya 45% na ask ni $0.35, pengo ndipo biashara inapoishi: 0.45 x $1.00 kutoa $0.35 ni senti 10 za thamani inayotarajiwa kwa hisa juu ya matumizi ya senti 35. Kama pengo ni senti moja au mbili, ada na spread zitalila. Pale unapoamua ukubwa wa dau kutokana na faida hiyo, Kelly Criterion<\/a> ndiyo mfumo wa kawaida wa kuanzia.<\/p>\n

      Kwa picha pana zaidi, mwongozo wetu wa masoko ya utabiri ni nini<\/a> unashughulikia chombo chenyewe, jinsi Polymarket inavyofanya kazi<\/a> unaonyesha mashine za jukwaa moja, na jinsi ya kuweka pesa katika akaunti ya Polymarket<\/a> unaeleza njia ya kufadhili hatua kwa hatua. Miongozo yetu mingine ya wafanyabiashara<\/a> inashughulikia mazingira yanayozunguka, na kamusi yetu ya biashara<\/a> inafafanua istilahi zinazotumika hapa.<\/p>\n

      Volity inaingia wapi<\/h2>\n

      Skrini ya Markets kwenye dashibodi yako ya Volity hukuruhusu kuunganisha akaunti ya Polymarket, kuifadhili kutoka pochi yako ya Volity USD na kufuatilia salio kutoka mahali palepale unapodhibiti fedha zako nyingine. Dola huondoka pochini na kufika jukwaani kama salio la stablecoin ya dola, nacho ndicho kipimo ambacho mikataba hii hudhaminiwa kwacho.<\/p>\n

      Msimamo wako unaishi jukwaani, si kwetu. Masalio na misimamo hushikiliwa kwenye jukwaa la nje, na biashara, upatikanaji na utoaji wa fedha vinategemea masharti ya jukwaa hilo lenyewe. Volity haiweki wala haisimamii maagizo kwa niaba yako. Unachopata upande wetu ni njia moja ya kufadhili na mtazamo mmoja wa salio, hivyo hesabu iliyo kwenye ukurasa huu ndiyo kitu pekee unachohitaji kufanya mwenyewe.<\/p>\n

      Mkataba wa senti 35 una maana gani?<\/h3>\n

      Una maana soko linapanga bei ya nafasi ya takriban 35% ya tokeo hilo. Unalipa $0.35 kwa hisa sasa, na kila hisa hulipa $1.00 endapo tokeo litatokea au $0.00 endapo halitatokea. Katika mifumo ya odds inayotumika Uingereza, Ayalandi na Australia hiyo ni 2.86 ya desimali au 13\/7 ya sehemu. Kumbuka senti 35 zinazoonekana kwenye skrini kwa kawaida ni bei ya katikati, hivyo bei yako halisi ya kuingia itakuwa juu kwa senti moja au mbili.<\/p>\n

      Ninahesabuje mapato yangu kwenye muamala wa soko la utabiri?<\/h3>\n

      Gawanya dau lako kwa bei ili upate idadi ya hisa, kisha zidisha kwa $1.00 kupata malipo ya ushindi. Dau la $100 kwa $0.35 hununua hisa 285.71, ambazo hukombolewa kwa $285.71, yaani faida ya $185.71. Njia fupi ya kupata asilimia ni (1 – bei) kugawanya bei, hivyo 0.65 \/ 0.35 ni 185.7%. Endapo tokeo litakwenda upande mwingine, unapoteza $100 yote.<\/p>\n

      Je, bei ya senti 90 ina maana ni hakika?<\/h3>\n

      Hapana. Ina maana nafasi ya takriban moja kati ya kumi ya tokeo kushindwa, na likishindwa unapoteza kila kitu ulicholipa. Malipo yanaakisi hilo: $100 kwa $0.90 hurudisha $111.11, yaani faida ya $11.11. Ushindi tisa kama huo hujumlika kuwa $99.99, ambayo hasara moja ya $100 huifuta kabisa. Bei za juu ni mapato madogo yaliyoambatanishwa na hatari ndogo lakini halisi.<\/p>\n

      Odds za soko la utabiri zinalinganaje na odds za bookmaker?<\/h3>\n

      Hesabu ni ileile na marjini hukaa mahali tofauti. Soko la odds zilizowekwa lina marjini ya mwendeshaji iliyopangwa ndani ya bei, ndiyo maana uwezekano unaoashiriwa katika matokeo yote hujumlika kuwa zaidi ya 100%. Kwenye order book pande hizo mbili hujumlika kuwa $1.00 kamili kila mara, na gharama ya kufanya biashara hujitokeza kama spread unayoivuka pamoja na ada yoyote ya taker, na vyote viwili unaviona kabla hujajitoa.<\/p>\n

      Kwa nini bei ilisogea bila habari yoyote?<\/h3>\n

      Mtiririko wa maagizo na muda vyote husogeza bei. Agizo kubwa kwenye soko jembamba linaweza kusukuma bei senti kadhaa bila lolote kutokea duniani, na bei huteleza kiasili kuelekea $1.00 au $0.00 tarehe ya utatuzi inapokaribia na mambo machache yakibaki yanayoweza kubadilisha jibu. Kagua kina cha pande zote mbili za kitabu kabla ya kusoma msogeo kama taarifa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Soko la utabiri halinukuu odds. Hunukuu bei, na bei hiyo tayari inabeba jibu ambalo watu wengi wanalitafuta. Hisa inayogharimu $0.35 ni soko […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":49830,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"custom_schema":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[281],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trader"],"yoast_head":"\nOdds za Soko la Utabiri Zimeelezwa | Volity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Katika soko la utabiri, bei ndiyo uwezekano. 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Unalipa $0.35 kwa hisa sasa, na kila hisa hulipa $1.00 endapo tokeo litatokea au $0.00 endapo halitatokea. Katika mifumo ya odds inayotumika Uingereza, Ayalandi na Australia hiyo ni 2.86 ya desimali au 13\\\/7 ya sehemu. Kumbuka senti 35 zinazoonekana kwenye skrini kwa kawaida ni bei ya katikati, hivyo bei yako halisi ya kuingia itakuwa juu kwa senti moja au mbili.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Ninahesabuje mapato yangu kwenye muamala wa soko la utabiri?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Gawanya dau lako kwa bei ili upate idadi ya hisa, kisha zidisha kwa $1.00 kupata malipo ya ushindi. Dau la $100 kwa $0.35 hununua hisa 285.71, ambazo hukombolewa kwa $285.71, yaani faida ya $185.71. Njia fupi ya kupata asilimia ni (1 - bei) kugawanya bei, hivyo 0.65 \\\/ 0.35 ni 185.7%. 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Kwenye order book pande hizo mbili hujumlika kuwa $1.00 kamili kila mara, na gharama ya kufanya biashara hujitokeza kama spread unayoivuka pamoja na ada yoyote ya taker, na vyote viwili unaviona kabla hujajitoa.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Kwa nini bei ilisogea bila habari yoyote?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Mtiririko wa maagizo na muda vyote husogeza bei. Agizo kubwa kwenye soko jembamba linaweza kusukuma bei senti kadhaa bila lolote kutokea duniani, na bei huteleza kiasili kuelekea $1.00 au $0.00 tarehe ya utatuzi inapokaribia na mambo machache yakibaki yanayoweza kubadilisha jibu. 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Certified in technical analysis through the International Federation of Technical Analysts and as a Financial Risk Manager, his work has been featured on DailyForex and TradingBeasts. His writing cuts through hype. The goal isn't moonshots; it's the disciplined edge that survives drawdowns. More on Alexander's background and approach: https:\/\/volity.io\/alexander-bennett\/","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/alexanderbennettfm\/","https:\/\/volity.io\/alexander-bennett\/"],"jobTitle":"Financial Analyst & Trading Strategy Expert","givenName":"Alexander","familyName":"Bennett","url":"https:\/\/volity.io\/alexander-bennett\/","worksFor":{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/volity.io\/#organization","name":"Volity"},"knowsAbout":["Forex trading","Cryptocurrency markets","Technical analysis","Risk management","CFD trading","Commodities trading","Trading strategy","TradingView charting"],"hasCredential":[{"@type":"EducationalOccupationalCredential","name":"Technical Analysis Certification","credentialCategory":"certification","recognizedBy":{"@type":"Organization","name":"International Federation of Technical Analysts","url":"https:\/\/www.ifta.org\/"}},{"@type":"EducationalOccupationalCredential","name":"Financial Risk Manager","credentialCategory":"certification","recognizedBy":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Global Association of Risk Professionals","url":"https:\/\/www.garp.org\/"}}]},{"@type":"FAQPage","@id":"https:\/\/volity.io\/sw\/trader\/prediction-market-odds-explained\/#faq","mainEntity":[{"@type":"Question","name":"Mkataba wa senti 35 una maana gani?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Una maana soko linapanga bei ya nafasi ya takriban 35% ya tokeo hilo. Unalipa $0.35 kwa hisa sasa, na kila hisa hulipa $1.00 endapo tokeo litatokea au $0.00 endapo halitatokea. Katika mifumo ya odds inayotumika Uingereza, Ayalandi na Australia hiyo ni 2.86 ya desimali au 13\/7 ya sehemu. Kumbuka senti 35 zinazoonekana kwenye skrini kwa kawaida ni bei ya katikati, hivyo bei yako halisi ya kuingia itakuwa juu kwa senti moja au mbili."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Ninahesabuje mapato yangu kwenye muamala wa soko la utabiri?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Gawanya dau lako kwa bei ili upate idadi ya hisa, kisha zidisha kwa $1.00 kupata malipo ya ushindi. Dau la $100 kwa $0.35 hununua hisa 285.71, ambazo hukombolewa kwa $285.71, yaani faida ya $185.71. Njia fupi ya kupata asilimia ni (1 - bei) kugawanya bei, hivyo 0.65 \/ 0.35 ni 185.7%. Endapo tokeo litakwenda upande mwingine, unapoteza $100 yote."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Je, bei ya senti 90 ina maana ni hakika?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Hapana. Ina maana nafasi ya takriban moja kati ya kumi ya tokeo kushindwa, na likishindwa unapoteza kila kitu ulicholipa. Malipo yanaakisi hilo: $100 kwa $0.90 hurudisha $111.11, yaani faida ya $11.11. Ushindi tisa kama huo hujumlika kuwa $99.99, ambayo hasara moja ya $100 huifuta kabisa. Bei za juu ni mapato madogo yaliyoambatanishwa na hatari ndogo lakini halisi."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Odds za soko la utabiri zinalinganaje na odds za bookmaker?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Hesabu ni ileile na marjini hukaa mahali tofauti. Soko la odds zilizowekwa lina marjini ya mwendeshaji iliyopangwa ndani ya bei, ndiyo maana uwezekano unaoashiriwa katika matokeo yote hujumlika kuwa zaidi ya 100%. Kwenye order book pande hizo mbili hujumlika kuwa $1.00 kamili kila mara, na gharama ya kufanya biashara hujitokeza kama spread unayoivuka pamoja na ada yoyote ya taker, na vyote viwili unaviona kabla hujajitoa."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Kwa nini bei ilisogea bila habari yoyote?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Mtiririko wa maagizo na muda vyote husogeza bei. Agizo kubwa kwenye soko jembamba linaweza kusukuma bei senti kadhaa bila lolote kutokea duniani, na bei huteleza kiasili kuelekea $1.00 au $0.00 tarehe ya utatuzi inapokaribia na mambo machache yakibaki yanayoweza kubadilisha jibu. Kagua kina cha pande zote mbili za kitabu kabla ya kusoma msogeo kama taarifa."}}],"speakable":{"@type":"SpeakableSpecification","cssSelector":["h1",".entry-content > p:first-of-type",".entry-content h2",".faq-question","[data-volity-takeaways]"]}}]}},"yoast_meta":{"yoast_wpseo_title":"Odds za Soko la Utabiri Zimeelezwa %%sep%% %%sitename%%","yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Katika soko la utabiri, bei ndiyo uwezekano. Jifunze kusoma odds, kuhesabu malipo yako na kubadilisha bei kuwa odds za desimali na sehemu.","yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"odds za soko la utabiri","yoast_wpseo_opengraph-title":"","yoast_wpseo_opengraph-description":"","yoast_wpseo_twitter-title":"","yoast_wpseo_twitter-description":""},"yoast_title":"Odds za Soko la Utabiri Zimeelezwa %%sep%% %%sitename%%","yoast_metadesc":"Katika soko la utabiri, bei ndiyo uwezekano. 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