{"id":49874,"date":"2026-08-07T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/volity.io\/?p=49874"},"modified":"2026-08-07T13:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T13:00:00","slug":"how-prediction-markets-resolve","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/volity.io\/sw\/crypto\/how-prediction-markets-resolve\/","title":{"rendered":"Jinsi Masoko ya Utabiri Yanavyotatuliwa: Utatuzi, Vyanzo na Mizozo"},"content":{"rendered":"

Soko la utabiri hulipa kwa kanuni zake zilizoandikwa, si kwa kile ambacho kichwa cha habari kinaonekana kuahidi. Utatuzi ndiyo hatua ambapo jukwaa huamua ni upande upi ulioshinda, na vigezo vinavyoongoza uamuzi huo huchapishwa kabla biashara haijafunguliwa. Nyaraka za Polymarket zenyewe ziko wazi kuhusu pengo kati ya vitu hivyo viwili: kichwa cha soko huelezea swali, lakini kanuni ndizo zinazofafanua jinsi linavyotatuliwa<\/a>. Mwongozo huu unaeleza nani huamua, kwa kutumia chanzo kipi, muda gani pesa huchukua kufika, na kinachotokea mtu anapopinga.<\/p>\n

TL;DR \/ Muhtasari wa haraka:<\/b> Kanuni ya utatuzi ndiyo mkataba wenyewe. Masoko mawili kuhusu tukio moja halisi yanaweza kutatuliwa kinyume kwa sababu yanataja vyanzo tofauti, tarehe tofauti za mwisho na namna tofauti ya kushughulikia hali za pembeni. Soma vigezo vya utatuzi na maneno kamili kabla ya kununua, si baada ya tukio. Kwenye Polymarket matokeo yasiyopingwa hutatuliwa ndani ya takriban saa mbili; yaliyopingwa huchukua siku nne hadi sita. Hisa zinazoshinda hukombolewa kwa $1.00 na hisa zinazoshindwa hazina thamani yoyote.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Hakuna kilichomo hapa ambacho ni ushauri binafsi. Mkataba wa tukio unaweza kutatuliwa kwa sifuri, maana yake unapoteza kiasi chote ulicholipa kukinunua.<\/p>\n

Kwa nini kanuni ya utatuzi ndiyo mkataba mzima<\/h2>\n

Kila derivative ya kweli hufanya kazi hivi. Malipo hufafanuliwa na waraka wa vigezo badala ya jina la bidhaa, na ndiyo maana wafanyabiashara wa kitaalamu husoma masharti ya mkataba kabla ya kusoma chati. Angalia derivative yoyote ya index inayosimamiwa na utaona vigezo vya utatuzi vimebanwa hadi dakika. Vigezo vya mkataba vya Eurex kwa options za index ya EURO STOXX 50 vinasema kwamba bei ya mwisho ya utatuzi hutegemea wastani wa thamani za index zilizokokotolewa kati ya saa 11:50 na 12:00 CET<\/a> siku ya utatuzi wa mwisho. Chanzo kilichotajwa, dirisha kamili, mbinu iliyoelezwa, tarehe isiyobadilika.<\/p>\n

Mikataba ya matukio hurithi mantiki hiyohiyo kwa muundo mfupi zaidi. Vigezo vyote ni kifungu kifupi cha maandishi kilicho chini ya order book, na ndicho kitu pekee kinachoamua kama hisa yako ina thamani ya dola moja au haina kitu. Kalshi wanaieleza kwa sentensi moja: kanuni za kubaini matokeo ya mkataba, taarifa itakayotumika, na chanzo cha taarifa hiyo vimo ndani ya masharti na vigezo vya kila mkataba<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Fasihi ya uchumi imeyachukulia mabomba haya kama zana za utabiri kwa miongo miwili. Wolfers na Zitzewitz waliweka msingi wa mfumo huo katika Journal of Economic Perspectives<\/a>, wakiyafafanua katika karatasi ya kazi ya NBER<\/a> kama masoko ambapo washiriki hufanya biashara ya mikataba yenye malipo yaliyofungwa kwenye tukio la baadaye. Malipo yamefungwa kwenye tukio kama mkataba unavyolieleza, jambo ambalo ni finyu zaidi kuliko tukio lenyewe.<\/p>\n

Majukwaa yote mawili makubwa huweka onyo lilelile mbele ya watumiaji wapya. Kituo cha msaada cha Polymarket kinasema kwamba masoko hutatuliwa kwa kanuni zilizowekwa mapema ambazo zinapatikana chini ya order book ya soko<\/a>. Kalshi huwaambia wafanyabiashara kwamba kila soko hufanya kazi chini ya kanuni zake zilizoandikwa kwenye ukurasa wa soko, na huongeza maelekezo ya wazi ya kusoma kanuni za soko kabla ya kufanya biashara<\/a>. Miundo tofauti, ushauri uleule.<\/p>\n

Kusoma vigezo vya utatuzi kabla ya kununua<\/h2>\n
\n \"Kadi
\n<\/figure>\n

Kanuni ya utatuzi ina kazi ya kufanya, na nyaraka za Polymarket zinaeleza kile ambacho kila soko lazima likifafanue: chanzo cha utatuzi, tarehe ya mwisho, na jinsi hali za pembeni zinavyoshughulikiwa<\/a>. Masoko yaliyoandikwa karibu kwa maneno yaleyale yanaweza kutofautiana katika vyote hivyo, na hapo ndipo pesa hupotea kwa watu ambao hawakusoma bei vibaya hata mara moja.<\/p>\n

Chukua mfano halisi. Soko la Polymarket kuhusu Waziri Mkuu ajaye wa Ethiopia, lililosomwa moja kwa moja tarehe 2 Agosti 2026, hutatuliwa kwa yeyote atakayeshika wadhifa huo baada ya uchaguzi mkuu wa 2026. Kanuni kisha inabana zaidi: mtu huyo lazima ateuliwe rasmi na kuapishwa, na Waziri Mkuu wa muda au wa mpito hahesabiki katika utatuzi<\/a>. Pia inataja chanzo kikuu, inaruhusu habari za kuthibitisha, na inaweka tarehe ya kikomo ambapo baada yake soko hutatuliwa kuwa Other. Kila kifungu hapo ni mahali ambapo mtu mwenye akili timamu angeweza kukisia vibaya.<\/p>\n

Sasa fikiria soko la pili kuhusu uchaguzi uleule ambalo limeacha kifungu cha kiongozi wa muda. Kiongozi wa mpito akiingia madarakani angetatua soko moja na si lingine, siku moja, kwa ukweli uleule. Hakuna lililokosea katika mojawapo. Mikataba iliuliza tu maswali tofauti nyuma ya vichwa vinavyofanana.<\/p>\n

Kalshi wanaligawa hili katika tabaka ili wafanyabiashara waone umbo lake haraka. Kila soko hubeba muhtasari wa kanuni unaoeleza thamani inayopimwa, ratiba na chanzo cha uthibitisho, na jukwaa linabainisha kwamba muhtasari hauna maandishi yote ya kanuni kamili<\/a>, ambazo zipo chini yake. Muhtasari ni ramani. Kanuni kamili ndilo eneo lenyewe, na malipo hufuata eneo.<\/p>\n

Ni nini kinachohesabika kama chanzo cha ukweli<\/h2>\n

Chanzo cha utatuzi ni mamlaka iliyotajwa ambayo tamko lake humaliza mabishano. Kwa kawaida ni tangazo rasmi, chapisho la chombo kinachosimamia, mtoa data au tovuti mahususi iliyotajwa, na huchaguliwa wakati soko linaundwa. Polymarket huwataka wote wanaopendekeza soko jipya waeleze chanzo cha utatuzi ni kipi<\/a> kama sehemu ya pendekezo, pamoja na kichwa na ushahidi wa mahitaji.<\/p>\n

Usahihi ni muhimu kuliko unavyosikika. “Bei ya bitcoin” si namba moja, na kanuni iliyoandikwa vizuri husema ni namba ipi. Kalshi hutatua mikataba yake ya crypto kwa kuchukua wastani wa sekunde 60 za CF Benchmarks Real-Time Indexes, ambazo huripoti bei mara moja kila sekunde<\/a>, hivyo thamani ya mwisho ni wastani wa bei sitini za mwisho kabla ya kuisha badala ya alama moja kwenye soko lolote. Mikataba miwili kuhusu rasilimali ileile na kiwango kilekile ingetatuliwa tofauti kama mmoja ungetumia bei ya papo hapo na mwingine ungetumia wastani huo.<\/p>\n

Vyanzo huja katika maumbo matatu, na umbo hubadilisha hatari yako. Mamlaka moja iliyotajwa au index ni safi zaidi: chapisho moja, wakati mmoja, jibu moja. Kanuni ya vyanzo vingi inahitaji vyombo kadhaa vikubaliane kabla soko halijatatuliwa, jambo ambalo ni la polepole lakini gumu zaidi kudanganya. Kanuni ya makubaliano ya habari za kuaminika ndiyo huru zaidi, kwa sababu inakabidhi uamuzi kwa yeyote anayetatua badala ya kwa waraka.<\/p>\n

Majukwaa hayo mawili kisha hutofautiana kuhusu nani hutumia chanzo hicho. Kalshi hubaini matokeo wenyewe, na wanasema uamuzi huo unaweza kuchukua kuanzia saa moja hadi zaidi ya saa kumi na mbili baada ya soko kufungwa<\/a>, kwa kawaida ukiamuliwa na wakati data inapofika kutoka shirika la chanzo. Polymarket hukabidhi kazi hiyo kwa oracle ya nje badala yake, wakitumia UMA Optimistic Oracle kwa utatuzi usio na kituo kimoja na usiohitaji ruhusa<\/a>, ambapo yeyote anaweza kupendekeza matokeo na yeyote anaweza kuyapinga. Kwa mitambo ya jukwaa iliyo chini ya haya yote, ona maelezo yetu ya jinsi Polymarket inavyofanya kazi<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ratiba kutoka tukio hadi malipo<\/h2>\n
\n \"Ratiba
\n<\/figure>\n

Tukio kuisha si sawa na kulipwa. Kwenye jukwaa linalotatuliwa na oracle mfuatano huenda hivi: tukio linakwisha, mtu anapendekeza matokeo na kuweka dhamana, dirisha la kupinga linafunguliwa, na hapo tu ndipo hisa zinazoshinda huweza kukombolewa. Takwimu zilizoandikwa za Polymarket, hadi tarehe 2 Agosti 2026, zinaweka dhamana ya mpendekezaji kwa kawaida ya $750, ikifuatiwa na kipindi cha kupinga cha saa mbili<\/a>, huku dhamana ikipotea kama pendekezo ni la makosa au limetolewa mapema mno.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hatua<\/th>\nMuda wa kawaida<\/th>\nKinachoendelea<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Pendekezo<\/td>\nWakati wowote baada ya tarehe ya mwisho<\/td>\nMpendekezaji huchagua matokeo na kuweka dhamana<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dirisha la kupinga<\/td>\nSaa 2 kwa uchache, linaweza kuongezwa<\/td>\nYeyote anaweza kupinga kwa kuweka dhamana inayolingana<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Utatuzi usiopingwa<\/td>\nTakriban saa 2 baada ya pendekezo<\/td>\nHisa zinazoshinda huweza kukombolewa kwa $1.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kipindi cha mjadala, ikipingwa<\/td>\nSaa 24 hadi 48<\/td>\nUshahidi huwasilishwa hadharani<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kura ya wenye token, ikipingwa<\/td>\nTakriban saa 48<\/td>\nWahifadhi hujitolea na kufichua kura<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Utatuzi uliopingwa<\/td>\nJumla ya siku 4 hadi 6<\/td>\nMatokeo huthibitishwa na kura<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Dirisha la kupinga si kipimo kisichobadilika. Nyaraka za wasanidi za UMA zinaweka dirisha la msingi la uhai la saa mbili<\/a> na zinashauri dhidi ya kuweka chochote kifupi zaidi. Ukurasa wake wa masoko ya utabiri kisha unaeleza kwamba mapendekezo yaliyotiliwa shaka hupewa nyongeza, hivyo pendekezo la kawaida la michezo linaweza kutatuliwa baada ya takriban dakika 15 wakati pendekezo tata au la kijiografia-kisiasa lenye maoni hushikiliwa wazi zaidi ya saa mbili za msingi<\/a>. Kadiri swali linavyokuwa gumu, ndivyo mtaji wako unavyokaa umefungwa muda mrefu zaidi.<\/p>\n

Muda wa Kalshi hufanya kazi tofauti lakini unadai umakini uleule. Kituo chake cha msaada kinabainisha kwamba masoko hufungwa ama matokeo yanapotokea au kwenye tarehe na saa iliyoorodheshwa, na kwamba wafanyabiashara wanapaswa kusoma taarifa za ratiba na malipo kabla ya kufanya biashara<\/a> ili wajue ni ipi kati ya hizo mbili inatumika. Pesa iliyofungwa kwenye mkataba wa tukio si pesa unayoweza kuipangia tarehe maalum.<\/p>\n

Kinachotokea matokeo yanapopingwa<\/h2>\n

Mizozo ni kipengele kilichobuniwa, si kasoro. Lengo la mfumo wa optimistic ni kwamba jibu la haraka na la bei nafuu hukubaliwa isipokuwa mtu awe tayari kuweka pesa nyuma ya madai kwamba ni la makosa. UMA inaeleza oracle yake kama inayotatua sehemu kubwa ya maombi, kwa sasa 99.8%, haraka na kwa gharama ndogo<\/a>, ikipandisha yaliyobaki kwenye mfumo wa kutatua mizozo ambapo wahifadhi hujitolea kura ndani ya dirisha la saa 24 na kuzifichua katika dirisha linalofuata.<\/p>\n

Njia ya kupanda ni ya hadharani na ya kimitambo. Mpingaji huweka dhamana inayolingana na ya mpendekezaji, jambo linalofungua kipindi cha mjadala cha saa 24 hadi 48 ambapo ushahidi huwasilishwa, na baadaye wenye token hupiga kura kwa takriban saa 48. Kituo cha msaada cha Polymarket kinaorodhesha matokeo manne yanayowezekana: mpendekezaji ashinde, mpingaji ashinde, Too Early, au Unknown<\/a>. Upande unaoshindwa hupoteza dhamana yake na nusu yake huenda kwa mshindi kama zawadi, jambo linalofanya mizozo ya bure iwe nadra.<\/p>\n

Nusu ya matokeo hayo huwashtua wafanyabiashara. Too Early maana yake tukio la msingi halikuwa limekwisha kweli, hivyo saa inarudishwa nyuma na soko linabaki wazi. Unknown, inayoelezwa kama inayotumika mara chache, hutatua soko nusu kwa nusu, na kila hisa hukombolewa kwa $0.50 bila kujali ilikuwa upande upi. Soko ambalo ulikuwa unashinda kwenye karatasi linaweza kuishia kama marejesho ya nusu.<\/p>\n

Kuna kipengele kimoja cha kimitambo muhimu kwa matarajio. Polymarket inasema kwamba haihifadhi fedha za watumiaji na haiwezi kubadilisha au kutengua utatuzi wa soko, na kwamba matokeo yakishathibitishwa na UMA hayabadiliki<\/a>. Hakuna dawati la rufaa la kutuma barua pepe baadaye. Mahali pa kushawishi matokeo ni kwenye kanuni, na wakati wake ni kabla hujanunua.<\/p>\n

Mtego wa maneno yasiyo wazi<\/h2>\n

Mabishano mengi ya utatuzi ni mabishano kuhusu lugha. Kanuni inayosema sera lazima “itangazwe” inaacha wazi kama rasimu iliyovuja inahesabika. Kanuni inayosema takwimu lazima “izidi” kiwango inaacha wazi kinachotokea hasa kwenye kiwango hicho. Kanuni isiyotaja saa za eneo inaacha wazi ni siku ipi ya kalenda tukio la jioni sana linaangukia. Hakuna kati ya hayo kinachoonekana kwenye kichwa.<\/p>\n

Mfano wazi zaidi uliochapishwa ni jozi ya mikataba ya Polymarket kuhusu hatua moja ya kampuni. Kampuni ya programu Strategy iliuza bitcoin 32 kati ya tarehe 26 na 31 Mei 2026, kisha ikatangaza mauzo hayo kwenye taarifa rasmi tarehe 1 Juni. CoinDesk iliripoti kwamba watatuzi wa jukwaa waliamua mkataba wa 31 Mei kuwa Hapana na mkataba wa 30 Juni kuwa Ndiyo<\/a>. Mtazamo wao ulikuwa kwamba muamala haukuwa wa hadharani hadi tarehe 1 Juni, hivyo haukuweza kuhesabika kwenye kikomo cha Mei. Tukio moja halisi, mikataba miwili, malipo kinyume, yakiamuliwa kabisa na kama kanuni ilihesabu tarehe ya muamala au ya kutangazwa kwake.<\/p>\n

Maneno ya kifafanuzi ni mtego mwingine wa kawaida. Soko kuhusu kama rais wa Ukraine angevaa suti kwenye mkutano wa NATO lilivutia, kwa ripoti ya CoinDesk, zaidi ya dola milioni 160 za biashara<\/a> kabla swali la kitu gani kinahesabika kama suti kuonekana halina chanzo cha utatuzi kilicho wazi kabisa. Linganisha hilo na mkataba wa bei ya crypto, ambapo “juu ya $120,000” hupimwa kikamilifu na mashine dhidi ya index iliyotajwa katika dirisha lililoelezwa. Mitambo ni ileile; maneno tu ndiyo hutofautiana kwa nafasi wanayoiacha.<\/p>\n

Hii si tabia ya jukwaa moja. Utafiti kuhusu utatuzi wa kiotomatiki unaonyesha ni mgumu kwa ujumla: utafiti wa mwaka 2026 uliopima mifumo ya oracle ya mawakala wengi katika maswali 1,189 ya masoko ya utabiri yaliyokwisha kutatuliwa<\/a> unaripoti usahihi bora wa 83.43%, huku maswali mengi yakikataa kusahihishwa na muundo wowote na kuhitaji usuluhishi wa binadamu. Sehemu kubwa ya maswali halisi hayaeleweki kabisa kabla mtu hajaanza kuyafanyia biashara.<\/p>\n

Majukwaa hurekebisha hili kwa ufafanuzi, na yote mawili ni makini kuhusu mipaka. Polymarket inaweza kuchapisha nyongeza ya “Additional context” pale mazingira yasiyotarajiwa yanapohitaji, lakini nyaraka ziko wazi kwamba ufafanuzi hauwezi kubadilisha nia ya msingi ya swali<\/a> na huchapishwa on-chain. Kalshi huongeza “additional details” wafanyabiashara wanapochanganyikiwa kuhusu tafsiri, huku ikisema kwamba haina wajibu wa kuongeza maelezo ya ziada kwenye ukurasa wa soko<\/a>. Ufafanuzi ni hisani, si hakikisho.<\/p>\n

Kutoeleweka pia huongezeka tukio moja linapogawanywa katika mikataba kadhaa. Polymarket hupanga soko kama swali moja la ndiyo au hapana na hukusanya maswali yanayohusiana chini ya tukio linalofanya kazi kama chombo cha kubeba<\/a>, hivyo mashindano ya njia nne ni masoko kadhaa ya Ndiyo au Hapana yaliyo bega kwa bega. Kila moja hubeba maandishi yake ya kanuni, na kusoma moja hakukuambii jirani yake inasema nini. Kama upande wa bei ndio unaotaka baadaye, mwongozo wetu wa odds za soko la utabiri<\/a> unaeleza jinsi ya kusoma bei kama uwezekano.<\/p>\n

Orodha ya ukaguzi wa kanuni za soko kabla ya kufanya biashara<\/h2>\n

Pitia hii kabla ya kuweka pesa kwenye soko lolote moja. Inachukua takriban dakika moja mara tu unapojua pa kuangalia.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Fungua kanuni kamili, si muhtasari.<\/b> Muhtasari ni urahisishaji. Maandishi kamili ndiyo yanayotatua.<\/li>\n
  2. Tambua chanzo cha utatuzi kilichotajwa, na kama ni mamlaka moja, index yenye dirisha la kipimo lililoelezwa, vyombo kadhaa vinavyopaswa kukubaliana, au makubaliano ya jumla ya habari.<\/li>\n
  3. Tafuta tarehe ya mwisho na angalia kama soko hufungwa kwenye tarehe au pale matokeo yanapotokea.<\/li>\n
  4. Jiulize kama kanuni inahesabu tukio lenyewe au kutangazwa kwake. Tofauti hiyo moja imeamua masoko halisi.<\/li>\n
  5. Soma vifungu vya kutenga. Viongozi wa muda, wa mpito, matokeo ya awali, kukamilika kwa sehemu na kufutwa kwa kawaida hushughulikiwa waziwazi.<\/li>\n
  6. Angalia kikomo cha mwisho. Baini kanuni inasema nini kama tukio halitokei kamwe au chanzo hakichapishi kamwe.<\/li>\n
  7. Tafuta saa za eneo na wakati kamili wa kikomo, kisha ubadilishe kwenye saa yako mwenyewe.<\/li>\n
  8. Bainisha njia ya utatuzi. Takriban saa mbili bila mzozo, siku nne hadi sita ikipingwa, hivyo usiweke pesa unayoihitaji irudi kwenye tarehe maalum.<\/li>\n
  9. Angalia kama ufafanuzi umeshachapishwa, na uusome pamoja na maneno ya awali.<\/li>\n
  10. Linganisha na soko lolote linalofanana kabla ya kuamua ukubwa. Chanzo au kikomo tofauti hulifanya kuwa chombo tofauti kabisa.<\/li>\n
  11. Kubali hasara inayowezekana. Hisa inayoshindwa hailipi kitu, na utatuzi wa Unknown unaweza kurudisha nusu.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Kama bado unaamua kama chombo hiki kinakufaa kabisa, anza na masoko ya utabiri ni nini<\/a>, linganisha muundo wake na bidhaa za odds zisizobadilika katika masoko ya utabiri dhidi ya kuweka dau<\/a>, na upitie miongozo yetu mingine ya crypto<\/a> kwa muktadha mpana.<\/p>\n

    Volity inapoingia<\/h2>\n

    Skrini ya Markets ndani ya dashibodi yako ya Volity inakuwezesha kuunganisha akaunti ya Polymarket, kuiwekea pesa kutoka pochi yako ya USD ya Volity na kufuatilia salio kutoka mahali pale pale unapoendesha pesa zako nyingine. Dola huondoka kwenye pochi na kufika kwenye jukwaa kama salio la stablecoin ya dola, ambayo ndiyo kipimo mikataba hii inadhaminiwa kwacho, hivyo hisa iliyoshinda hukombolewa kwa kipimo hichohicho.<\/p>\n

    Nafasi yako ipo kwenye jukwaa, si kwetu. Salio na nafasi hushikiliwa kwenye jukwaa la nje, na biashara, upatikanaji na utoaji wa fedha viko chini ya masharti ya jukwaa hilo lenyewe. Volity haiweki wala kusimamia oda kwa niaba yako, na utatuzi huamuliwa na mchakato uliochapishwa wa jukwaa lenyewe badala ya sisi. Maelekezo ya hatua kwa hatua yapo kwenye mwongozo wetu wa kuweka pesa katika akaunti ya Polymarket<\/a>.<\/p>\n

    Nani huamua matokeo ya soko la utabiri?<\/h3>\n

    Inategemea muundo wa jukwaa. Kalshi hubaini matokeo wenyewe, wakitumia masharti ya mkataba na shirika la chanzo lililotajwa. Polymarket hutumia UMA Optimistic Oracle, ambapo yeyote anaweza kupendekeza matokeo kwa kuweka dhamana na yeyote anaweza kuyapinga ndani ya dirisha la kupinga, huku mizozo isiyomalizika ikienda kwenye kura ya wenye token. Katika hali zote mbili uamuzi hufuata kanuni zilizochapishwa za soko na chanzo kilichotajwa ndani yake, si maoni kuhusu tukio lilimaanisha nini.<\/p>\n

    Inachukua muda gani kulipwa baada ya tukio?<\/h3>\n

    Kwenye Polymarket soko lisilopingwa hutatuliwa takriban saa mbili baada ya mtu kupendekeza matokeo, na lililopingwa huchukua siku nne hadi sita kipindi cha mjadala na kura vikijumuishwa. Kwenye Kalshi, ubainishaji baada ya soko kufungwa unaweza kuchukua kuanzia takriban saa moja hadi zaidi ya saa kumi na mbili, kutegemea chanzo kinapochapisha data yake. Muda wa utatuzi ni sifa ya soko ulilolichagua, hivyo likague kabla hujahitaji pesa.<\/p>\n

    Itakuwaje kama maneno ya soko hayako wazi?<\/h3>\n

    Maandishi ya kanuni kwa kawaida hutarajia kutoeleweka kwa kawaida kwa vifungu vya kutenga na hali ya kikomo, na ndiyo maana kuyasoma kikamilifu kunastahili dakika inayochukua. Pale jambo lisilotarajiwa kabisa linapotokea, jukwaa linaweza kuchapisha ufafanuzi, ingawa ufafanuzi hauwezi kubadilisha nia ya msingi ya swali. Chochote ambacho kanuni hazikigusi huamuliwa na yeyote anayetatua soko, chini ya mchakato soko hilo linaotumia.<\/p>\n

    Je, utatuzi unaweza kupingwa?<\/h3>\n

    Ndiyo, kwenye majukwaa yaliyojengwa kuzunguka optimistic oracle. Mzozo hufunguliwa kwa kuweka dhamana sawa na ya mpendekezaji ndani ya dirisha la kupinga, jambo linalochochea kipindi cha mjadala na, ikihitajika, kura ya wenye token. Upande unaoshindwa hupoteza dhamana yake, hivyo mizozo hubeba gharama halisi na ni nadra kwa vitendo. UMA inaripoti kwamba 99.8% ya maombi hutatuliwa bila kupanda ngazi hata kidogo.<\/p>\n

    Kinatokea nini kama tukio limefutwa?<\/h3>\n

    Angalia kanuni kwanza, kwa sababu nyingi hufafanua hili mapema kwa tarehe ya kikomo au matokeo mbadala yaliyoelezwa. Pale ambapo hakuna kati ya matokeo ya kawaida yanayotumika, soko linaweza kutatuliwa kama Unknown, na hapo kila hisa hukombolewa kwa $0.50 bila kujali ilikuwa upande upi. Tukio lililofutwa au kuahirishwa bila kikomo ndio mfano wa kawaida ambapo masoko mawili yanayofanana hutatuliwa tofauti, kwa sababu tu moja liliandika kifungu na lingine halikuandika.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Soko la utabiri hulipa kwa kanuni zake zilizoandikwa, si kwa kile ambacho kichwa cha habari kinaonekana kuahidi. Utatuzi ndiyo hatua ambapo jukwaa […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":49875,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"custom_schema":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[264],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto"],"yoast_head":"\nJinsi Masoko ya Utabiri Yanavyotatuliwa | Volity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Soko la utabiri hulipa kwa kanuni zake zilizoandikwa, si kwa kichwa cha habari. 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Kalshi hubaini matokeo wenyewe, wakitumia masharti ya mkataba na shirika la chanzo lililotajwa. Polymarket hutumia UMA Optimistic Oracle, ambapo yeyote anaweza kupendekeza matokeo kwa kuweka dhamana na yeyote anaweza kuyapinga ndani ya dirisha la kupinga, huku mizozo isiyomalizika ikienda kwenye kura ya wenye token. Katika hali zote mbili uamuzi hufuata kanuni zilizochapishwa za soko na chanzo kilichotajwa ndani yake, si maoni kuhusu tukio lilimaanisha nini."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Inachukua muda gani kulipwa baada ya tukio?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Kwenye Polymarket soko lisilopingwa hutatuliwa takriban saa mbili baada ya mtu kupendekeza matokeo, na lililopingwa huchukua siku nne hadi sita kipindi cha mjadala na kura vikijumuishwa. Kwenye Kalshi, ubainishaji baada ya soko kufungwa unaweza kuchukua kuanzia takriban saa moja hadi zaidi ya saa kumi na mbili, kutegemea chanzo kinapochapisha data yake. Muda wa utatuzi ni sifa ya soko ulilolichagua, hivyo likague kabla hujahitaji pesa."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Itakuwaje kama maneno ya soko hayako wazi?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Maandishi ya kanuni kwa kawaida hutarajia kutoeleweka kwa kawaida kwa vifungu vya kutenga na hali ya kikomo, na ndiyo maana kuyasoma kikamilifu kunastahili dakika inayochukua. Pale jambo lisilotarajiwa kabisa linapotokea, jukwaa linaweza kuchapisha ufafanuzi, ingawa ufafanuzi hauwezi kubadilisha nia ya msingi ya swali. Chochote ambacho kanuni hazikigusi huamuliwa na yeyote anayetatua soko, chini ya mchakato soko hilo linaotumia."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Je, utatuzi unaweza kupingwa?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Ndiyo, kwenye majukwaa yaliyojengwa kuzunguka optimistic oracle. Mzozo hufunguliwa kwa kuweka dhamana sawa na ya mpendekezaji ndani ya dirisha la kupinga, jambo linalochochea kipindi cha mjadala na, ikihitajika, kura ya wenye token. Upande unaoshindwa hupoteza dhamana yake, hivyo mizozo hubeba gharama halisi na ni nadra kwa vitendo. UMA inaripoti kwamba 99.8% ya maombi hutatuliwa bila kupanda ngazi hata kidogo."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Kinatokea nini kama tukio limefutwa?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Angalia kanuni kwanza, kwa sababu nyingi hufafanua hili mapema kwa tarehe ya kikomo au matokeo mbadala yaliyoelezwa. Pale ambapo hakuna kati ya matokeo ya kawaida yanayotumika, soko linaweza kutatuliwa kama Unknown, na hapo kila hisa hukombolewa kwa $0.50 bila kujali ilikuwa upande upi. Tukio lililofutwa au kuahirishwa bila kikomo ndio mfano wa kawaida ambapo masoko mawili yanayofanana hutatuliwa tofauti, kwa sababu tu moja liliandika kifungu na lingine halikuandika."}}],"speakable":{"@type":"SpeakableSpecification","cssSelector":["h1",".entry-content > p:first-of-type",".entry-content h2",".faq-question","[data-volity-takeaways]"]}}]}},"yoast_meta":{"yoast_wpseo_title":"Jinsi Masoko ya Utabiri Yanavyotatuliwa %%sep%% %%sitename%%","yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Soko la utabiri hulipa kwa kanuni zake zilizoandikwa, si kwa kichwa cha habari. Nani huamua, chanzo kipi, na muda gani malipo huchukua.","yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"jinsi masoko ya utabiri yanavyotatuliwa","yoast_wpseo_opengraph-title":"","yoast_wpseo_opengraph-description":"","yoast_wpseo_twitter-title":"","yoast_wpseo_twitter-description":""},"yoast_title":"Jinsi Masoko ya Utabiri Yanavyotatuliwa %%sep%% %%sitename%%","yoast_metadesc":"Soko la utabiri hulipa kwa kanuni zake zilizoandikwa, si kwa kichwa cha habari. 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