Crypto market: pressure, power plays, and the battle for recovery
Another vision of the crypto universe unfolds this week, marked by plunging DeFi metrics, emboldened miners, and whales flexing their wallets, all set against a backdrop of battles for blockchain supremacy. Recent events have shown that volatility may be the market’s only constant.
HBAR: the anatomy of a crash—and early signs of a turnaround
Hedera’s HBAR token finds itself at a crossroads. After soaring to $0.3052 this summer, it’s now marooned around $0.1767, down over 42% from its year-to-date peak, entrenched in a bear market pattern. The anticipated death cross—a technical indicator where the short-term moving average slips below the long-term—has appeared on daily charts, hinting at possible further decline. The reason? Hedera’s once-lauded DeFi ecosystem is experiencing a dramatic drop in total value locked (TVL), now halved to $179 million from $396 million. Stader, the flagship staking protocol, reported significant losses, as platforms such as SaucerSwap and Bonzo Finance endured double-digit declines, losing traction to newcomers like Jupiter Lend and Unichain.
On a brighter note, Hedera’s stablecoin supply surged 94% recently, reaching $170 million—the highest since August. This technology still attracts new users despite the lively fluctuations: sharp surges often lead to significant dips, as evidenced by a $164 million supply evaporating in a single day. Institutional selling has further compounded Hedera’s troubles; a notable 4.3% decline occurred as trading volume spiked 71% above average, breaking key support levels and igniting trader concerns. However, signs of panic are easing: inflows for selling collapsed by 88% since mid-October, with whales quietly accumulating coins. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator suggests that large holders not only endured the sell-off but actually increased their stakes, signalling early-stage accumulation that could ignite recovery if retail traders join in.
HBAR price road map: cautious forecasts and technical signals
- October 2025: Expected price range $0.169–$0.176; prevailing sentiment is bearish (Fear & Greed Index: 37)
- November 2025: Analysts eye a rebound, with forecasts around $0.227–$0.228
- December 2025: Despite looming volatility, prices may oscillate between $0.208–$0.230, with an average estimate of $0.219
For traders, the message is clear: expect turbulence but also keep an eye out for a potential rebound if whales and institutions shift gears.
Bitcoin mining: the mid-tier arms race heats up
As the looming 2024 halving casts its shadow, the Bitcoin mining sector is shifting focus from major names like MARA and CleanSpark to a vibrant contest among “mid-tier” players. Companies such as Cipher Mining, Bitdeer, and HIVE Digital have aggressively ramped up their realized hashrate, narrowing the gap with industry giants and reshaping the competitive field.
- HIVE surged by 27.9% to reach 16.2 EH/s in August, driven by its expansion in Paraguay and aiming for 25 EH/s by Thanksgiving. Daily BTC output is expected to hit 12 coins once its new facilities are fully operational.
- Bitdeer achieved 22–22.5 EH/s, showing nearly 25% month-over-month growth. The company is placing bets on profitability through proprietary SEALMINER hardware.
- Cipher advanced by 18.4%, hitting 15.8 EH/s, with its Black Pearl site contributing significantly to production; bold predictions suggest a rapid climb to 23.5 EH/s fleet-wide capacity.
- Canaan, a dual hardware manufacturer and miner, increased its realized hashrate by 15.7%, mining 98 BTC in August. With 8.6 EH/s installed, its fleet is set to surpass 10 EH/s shortly.
These miners collectively shattered previous records. In September, leading public miners achieved an impressive 326 EH/s, more than double last year’s figure, now representing nearly a third of Bitcoin’s total network hashrate.
Industry strategy: in-house power, diversification, and resilience
- Self-deployment is emerging as the new strategy as operators leverage existing assets and move towards their own hardware, reducing reliance on external resources.
- Capital reallocation is becoming the norm, with large firms opting for hosting and services instead of new purchases, while mid-tier players are focusing on machine stockpiles and efficiency.
- AI crossover is on the rise, as companies harness infrastructure and computing power to unlock new revenue streams amidst shrinking mining margins post-halving.
This evolving landscape provides greater operational control and signals a more sustainable, resilient Bitcoin mining sector—equipped for stiff competition and technological advancement.
Trader’s viewpoint: what the data reveals
For crypto traders keen on the action:
- HBAR’s volatility is far from over. Until institutional holders make a decisive move, traders should monitor support/resistance at $0.169–$0.176. While whales are accumulating, retail involvement will be critical for any rally.
- Mid-tier Bitcoin miners represent fresh opportunities (and risks) as capacity expands. Their strategic independence—especially reliance on proprietary mining sites and hardware—may offer resilience against network pressures, potentially influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the long term.
Spotlight: the pursuit of real utility
The crypto market’s vibrant dynamism extends beyond mere price action—it’s a pursuit for utility and relevance. HBAR’s DeFi challenges reflect a larger struggle to engage top developers, while the mining sector’s push for resilience and diversification exemplifies its adaptive strength. As institutions subtly shape market sentiment and mid-tier players redefine the game, it’s evident that tomorrow’s crypto landscape is being forged today—through data and strategy rather than headlines.
Key takeaways for Volity’s audience
- Monitor HBAR’s technical signals and whale accumulation for clues to trend shifts; volatility may spark speculative trading opportunities as DeFi volumes fluctuate.
- Bitcoin mining’s mid-tier dynamic hints at evolving power structures, which could affect price discovery and ecosystem stability.
- Look deeper than price movements. Real changes occur in infrastructure, institutional strategies, and the ongoing adaptability of industry players.
In a market hungry for surprises, staying ahead means recognising not only trends but also the driving forces and ambitions beneath. This week, as HBAR seeks recovery and miners race for dominance, fortune favours those who understand the story behind the numbers.
