The cryptocurrency market is navigating a complex landscape as November draws to a close. Bitcoin is currently trading robustly near $91,400, while the overall crypto market cap rests at $3.1 trillion, reflecting a 0.46% increase in the last 24 hours. This cautious optimism seems entwined with potential technical challenges and impending supply shocks.
Bitcoin stability masks deeper market tensions
Bitcoin oscillated between $90,155 and $91,632 over the past day, closing at $91,421, marking a 0.98% daily gain. This apparent stability masks considerable institutional interest. Recent data reveals that institutions have scooped up approximately 257,000 BTC, generating sustained buying pressure that is somewhat independent of retail dynamics.
Despite this institutional backing, not all analysts maintain a bullish stance for the short term. Machine learning models, using data from platforms such as GPT-4o and Claude Sonnet 4, predict an average Bitcoin price of $101,833 by November 30, which implies a potential decline of 3.84% from earlier November levels. Claude’s model is notably bearish, estimating a drop to $98,500. However, technical indicators like the positive MACD histogram suggest that gains could still be achieved without entering overbought territory.
Industry figures present a spectrum of views on Bitcoin’s year-end prospects. Tom Lee from Fundstrat Capital believes corrections are nearing an end and foresees a rebound above $100,000 in December. On the other hand, Arthur Hayes remains resolute in his prediction of a $250,000 Bitcoin price by year-end, considering $80,600 as the bottom. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest highlights the Federal Reserve’s expected end to quantitative tightening on December 1, which could act as a market catalyst.
Ethereum braces for Fusaka upgrade amid ETF outflows
Ethereum has faced challenges, currently trading at $3,007.27 with only a modest 0.21% gain. The network is now eyeing a critical juncture at its 100-day moving average, which often serves as both support and resistance. Analysts suggest that if Ethereum can breach this level, it might advance towards $3,618 and aim for the $4,200 hurdle before the year’s end.
A significant milestone approaches on December 3—the Fusaka upgrade. Historical performance suggests that past upgrades can lead to impressive gains; for instance, the Pectra upgrade in May 2025 sparked a 55% uptick within a month. Nonetheless, Ethereum ETFs have faced significant outflows, tallying $1.42 billion this November, a substantial increase from March’s $403 million.
Pi Network faces existential supply shock in December
Among the tokens navigating immediate peril is Pi Network (PI), trading at $0.2500 after a rally of nearly 70% from all-time lows. The network plans to unlock between 186-190 million tokens in December, which encompasses 43% of its total supply on centralized exchanges. Analysts describe this situation as “extremely rare and dangerous.”
The mathematics paint a troubling picture. A 43% increase in circulating supply typically suggests a price decrease of around 30%. However, history shows that actual declines can be far worse as panic selling often ensues, exacerbating demand contraction and creating a vicious cycle of losses.
While Pi Network has secured investments in companies like CiDi Games and OpenMind, which should theoretically boost adoption, the market remains sceptical. Historical trends show that substantial token unlocks usually trigger price declines one to two weeks prior, as markets position for the event.
Existing holders face a strategic dilemma. Those with acquisition costs below $0.20 might weather the storm, but others with higher entry points or limited risk appetites may opt to reduce holdings in advance of the looming supply shock.
Altcoin moves signal institutional reallocation
Other cryptocurrencies are making waves as well. Cardano (ADA) saw a 1.35% uptick while XRP climbed 0.68%, as traders explored altcoin potential amid expected Federal Reserve liquidity shifts. Meanwhile, Solana ETFs have staged a recovery after a prolonged downturn, yet SOL’s price remains under pressure around $136.65.
Smaller-cap assets demonstrated notable volatility, with gains of 24%, 16%, and 14% seen in LSK, ALCX, and QNT, respectively. This surge suggests a possible capital rotation into these underappreciated segments, though such rapid movements in lower-liquidity assets elevate risks.
Macro backdrop suggests volatility ahead
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has surged to 86.4%, indicating shifting market expectations towards monetary easing, which theoretically benefits risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, trading disruptions highlight ongoing infrastructure challenges, such as the recent CME Group futures trading halt lasting over 10 hours due to a cooling failure.
Regulatory waters remain choppy, with Nasdaq striving for SEC approval to expand stock tokenization, while simultaneously seeking to increase options limits for its iShares Bitcoin Trust. These developments aim to bolster institutional infrastructure but are accompanied by persistent regulatory uncertainties globally.
The path forward
As 2025 nears its final month, cryptocurrency markets are indeed at a crossroads. Institutional accumulation, possible shifts in Federal Reserve policies, and significant upgrades like Ethereum’s Fusaka provide potential catalysts for upward movement. Conversely, major token unlocks, particularly the forthcoming Pi Network event, present significant headwinds.
Traders should focus on three pivotal developments: the Federal Reserve’s stance post-December 1, Ethereum’s movements around its 100-day moving average and the Fusaka upgrade’s outcomes, and the price dynamics of Pi Network amid its unlock period. These factors will likely shape the cryptocurrency landscape as year-end approaches.
