Solana’s January test: a $200 dream meets a PayFi market
Solana has entered January with a familiar storyline and an unfamiliar rival. On the chart, traders can still make a clean case for a rebound. In the tape, however, a payment finance rotation has started to siphon attention from the layer-1 trade. As a result, SOL now sits near $144 to $145, down about 12% over the past 30 days, and the market is arguing over whether that slump is a springboard or the start of something duller.
January has often been Solana’s month. Historically, SOL has logged an average January return near 59%, with a median gain around 22%. That pattern looks even stronger after a weak December, and last December delivered one. SOL fell 20.5% in December 2024, and then rallied 22.3% in January 2025. Therefore, with SOL down 6.94% so far this month, the stats crowd sees a setup that tends to lean bullish.
Technicians have also pointed to a two-day bullish divergence. Between 21 November and 17 December, price made a lower low, yet the Relative Strength Index made a higher low. That mismatch often signals sellers are tiring, although it only matters if new buying arrives. Meanwhile, Solana’s recent uptick in active addresses, which hit a six-month high, offers at least a hint of genuine usage beneath the volatility.
However, the neat seasonal story still depends on a few hard levels. First, traders want to see SOL hold and build above $129. A close above that mark would help clear the nearby supply zone around $123 to $124. Once that overhead clutter thins, the trade becomes simpler. Buyers can then lean on $129 as a line in the sand, while aiming for $150 as the next obvious magnet.
Above $150, the market starts whispering about $171, particularly if ETF-linked flows and broad risk appetite cooperate. Even then, $200 is not a straight line. It is a psychological number, and those tend to attract early profit-taking. Still, a strong push through $150 would likely pull fresh momentum traders into the move.
Yet the charts also carry a darker note. On the same two-day timeframe, the 100-period exponential moving average is close to crossing below the 200-period EMA. That bearish crossover, if confirmed, often drags price action into a choppy, frustrating stretch. Therefore, even bullish traders may need patience, since a crossover can weigh on late-January sentiment.
On the downside, the market has a clear fail-safe. The key level sits at $116. A break below $116 would not just hurt price. It would also break the neat “red December, green January” pattern that many traders have been leaning on. Moreover, if that drop came alongside a confirmed bearish EMA crossover, it would read less like a routine dip and more like capitulation.
For now, the immediate battlefield remains the $135 to $145 zone. If bids keep showing up there, the bulls can keep talking about the January playbook. If that floor gives way, the market will stop caring about seasonality and start caring about damage control.
Meanwhile, Solana’s problem may be as much narrative as it is technical. Payment finance tokens, or PayFi, have started to steal mindshare as traders rotate from broad smart contract stories to more specialised payment rails. XRP and Stellar, or XLM, have bounced as the theme spreads through crypto channels. Consequently, Solana risks being treated as yesterday’s high-throughput story, even though its speed and low fees fit payments neatly.
That tension cuts both ways. On one hand, PayFi enthusiasm can drain marginal dollars away from SOL, especially in a market that chases the newest tag. On the other hand, Solana can credibly pitch itself as an execution layer for next-generation payment infrastructure. Therefore, the PayFi craze could become a tailwind rather than a headwind, but only if builders and liquidity choose Solana’s rails.
Forecasts reflect the same split mood. Changelly’s month-end view tops out around $153.03, with an average January price near $148.84. CoinCodex sees SOL up 2.46% to about $151.08 by 25 January, and then a possible move to $159.13 by mid-February, or roughly 9.79% higher. Those numbers imply upside, but not a breakout stampede.
Beyond January, projections diverge wildly, as they always do in crypto. CryptoPredictions models a wide 2026 range of $259.80 to $382.06, while Kraken’s model points to a more modest $144.31 this year. More aggressive calls even talk about $300 in 2026. However, traders will likely treat those as background noise until the chart resolves its nearer-term fight.
One potential catalyst sits with the network itself. If the Alpenglow upgrade lands as scheduled this quarter, improved developer tooling could lift builder momentum and, in turn, support adoption-driven bids. In crypto, usage rarely moves price in a straight line. Yet it can change the tone of sell-offs, and it can make breakouts stick.
By the numbers
- SOL spot zone: $144 to $145
- 30-day move: about -12%
- January history: average +59%, median +22%
- Key levels: $129 pivot, $150 trigger, $116 fail-safe
- December 2024: -20.5% for SOL
Key takeaways
- Watch $129 for control, since acceptance above it improves the path towards $150.
- Respect $116, because a break would likely force a broader de-risking response.
- Don’t ignore the possible EMA bearish crossover, which can prolong chop even in rebounds.
- Track PayFi momentum, since narrative rotation can overpower otherwise clean technical setups.
- Network activity and the Alpenglow timeline matter, because they can turn a bounce into a trend.
