The crypto market is bracing for a tumultuous weekend as Bitcoin lingers around $90,000 amid concerns over bubble dynamics and central bank risks. Investors have a mixed sentiment, with XRP experiencing unusual regulatory support and Tether unexpectedly eyeing a football club acquisition. Traditional banks are gradually integrating debt markets into public blockchains, while US regulators officially exclude crypto from their list of systemic risks.
Bitcoin: $90k amidst fear, Fed, and the Bank of Japan
Bitcoin is hovering around the $90,000 mark, but the sentiment for bulls appears increasingly sour. Several analysts are highlighting signs of overheating, describing it as a “digital bubble” connecting cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence.
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Crash risk to $75k and the BoJ factor. Some analysts warn that a sudden shift in policy from the Bank of Japan could trigger a sell-off in risk assets. Should Japanese yields rise, some global liquidity might flow out of crypto into “risk-free” rates. In this scenario, Bitcoin could test the $75,000 area.
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Fed cuts rates, yet demand remains absent. The Federal Reserve has already enacted its third consecutive rate cut, but the typical “cheap money = Bitcoin growth” narrative isn’t holding. Market observations indicate that major players are using the easing primarily to secure profits around $90,000 rather than making new purchases.
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The “digital Labubu” comment from Vanguard. A Vanguard representative has compared Bitcoin to a “digital Labubu,” an expensive collectible toy without fundamental income, where its price relies solely on faith and scarcity. Charts are reflecting a risky pattern at historical highs, pointing towards a potential prolonged correction.
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Long-term holders remain unfazed. Meanwhile, on-chain data suggests that long-term holders have accumulated around 75,000 BTC in the last ten days — a classic “smart money buys into fear” scenario, despite the short-term market appearing fragile.
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The quantum factor: “tyranny of numbers” is being taken seriously. Separately, the accelerating development of quantum computing is prompting researchers to caution that, once a certain power threshold is reached, attacks on Bitcoin’s existing cryptographic schemes might shift from theory to practical risk. While it isn’t an immediate concern, market players are already speculating how quickly network consensus could shift to post-quantum algorithms.
For traders, this translates to a discernibly bearish technical and macro backdrop; however, the ownership structure indicates that holders are not yielding. Instead of signalling the end of the cycle, it resembles a late and precarious stage of a bull market.
XRP: banking licence, ETF and persistent sideways movement
XRP finds itself with one of the strongest news flows it has seen in years, yet it remains stuck in stubborn flat price action.
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Conditional banking charters from the OCC for Ripple and Circle. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in the US has granted Ripple and Circle conditional approval for a national banking charter. This suggests a near transition into the “official” financial system, potentially leading to direct access to settlements, government debt, and institutional clients.
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XRP ETFs attract nearly $1 billion. Notable funds have reported cumulative inflows around $1 billion since launch. The classic storyline persists: institutional investors are entering, but…
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The price is stuck around $2–2.15 and sees -20% risk. Market reviews indicate the $2.05–$2.15 zone has become solid resistance. Each attempt towards $2.12–$2.18 faces strong selling from large players. Analysts caution about a potential drop to lower support levels, with a 20% decrease risk if $2 fails to hold.
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However, technical indicators show signs of upward potential. Recent XRP reports indicate the formation of a narrowing descending triangle and divergence: while prices set local lows, oscillators did not. Additionally, there’s notable accumulation from “whales” near yearly lows, a typical pattern suggesting a bottom formation.
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The ecosystem is extending beyond its original scope. The launch of wrapped XRP on Solana and Ethereum adds cross-chain liquidity functions, making XRP more usable as a bridge between ecosystems, rather than limited to Ripple’s own products.
To sum it up, XRP boasts one of the best fundamentals and regulatory narratives in the market. Yet, the price reflects the challenges of “unpacking” good news when major holders are systematically unloading during rallies.
Ethereum and altcoins: ETFs struggle, chains thrive, prices stagnate
Amid Bitcoin and XRP drama, Ethereum and major altcoins are operating under the mantra of “fundamentals okay, prices painful.”
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ETH is stuck around $3,000. Spot ETFs for Ethereum have seen outflows of about $19.4 million over the past week, indicating a steady, albeit moderate loss. Rising open interest in derivatives suggests potential forced liquidations if the market dips.
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Charts hint at a downward shift. A “rising wedge” is forming near $3,200, typically seen as a precursor to corrections. Short-term reviews highlight key levels: resistance around $3,400 for bulls, and a “red line” support near $2,800 for bears.
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Altcoins: from Solana to Cardano. Solana, despite good on-chain activity and rising RSI, trades cautiously in a risk-off environment. Meanwhile, Cardano is receiving fundamental updates (oracle integrations), but price movements show risky patterns and fail to confirm reversals. HBAR is testing support at $0.12 and sending early signals of a potential downward break.
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Polygon and Pi Network exemplify sharp rebalancing. Polygon faced a price drop immediately following the Madhugiri hard fork, despite increased transaction numbers. Meanwhile, the Pi token displays a “concerning bearish pattern” with significant value declines. Good technological updates no longer guarantee price increases in an environment where investors are generally reducing risk.
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The NFT market cools, but Solana gains traction. Overall NFT sales have dropped approximately 15% to around $64.9 million, while volume on Solana has surged by about 44%. The market for expensive JPEGs is contracting, with capital flowing into ecosystems that offer higher turnover and lower fees.
Tether and football: stablecoin versus the old world
The week’s most eye-catching crossover isn’t another meme coin but Tether’s attempt to enter the European football arena.
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Tether is seriously considering the purchase of Juventus. The company has confirmed that it is exploring the possibility of acquiring the Turin club. For the stablecoin issuer, this marks a significant expansion beyond its traditional “cash management” and infrastructure realm: the move could involve rebranding, revenue tokenisation, fan tokens of a new generation, and integrating crypto payments into one of Europe’s most recognisable sports brands.
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This strategy aligns with the trend of “crypto as real economy.” Unlike the majority of altcoins, which exist strictly online, Tether is betting on owning physical, income-generating assets with substantial cash flow and an audience. Simultaneously, it serves as both diversification and a political signal: the issuer of a private dollar is positioning itself confidently to enter the public realm of European sports.
Traditional finance: from banking apathy to tokenised securities
While the crypto market debates whether it’s a bubble, major banks and regulators are quietly reconstructing infrastructure around blockchain technology.
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JPMorgan issues $50 million commercial paper on a public blockchain. The bank, in conjunction with Galaxy Digital, has placed tokenised commercial paper on an open chain. This isn’t just a laboratory project but a real debt instrument with a traditional issuer and investor — a step towards a full-fledged market for on-chain bonds.
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FSOC removes crypto from systemic risk list. The Financial Stability Oversight Council in the US has excluded cryptocurrencies from the list of threats to the financial system, simultaneously noting the rise in trends toward tokenising traditional assets. This political signal indicates that regulators are increasingly viewing crypto not as a “foreign” market but rather a technological layer for the existing financial system.
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Criticism of “banking laziness” and on-chain fintech. In columns echoing throughout the financial discourse, the viewpoint is gaining traction: the global economy is still paying for banks’ reluctance to invest in infrastructure and transparency post-crises. In this context, on-chain fintech is presented as a chance to build a settlement and debt architecture free from the legacy of outdated IT and partial opacity.
Regulatory landscape and politics: the US again eyeing to be the “crypto capital”
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Nominated CFTC member vows to make the US “crypto capital of the world.” A candidate from the Trump administration for leadership at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has pledged to transform the country into a global centre for the crypto industry. Amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty in the US, this signals a swing towards proactive support for the sector.
Infrastructure and security: Web3 matures
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World App expands encrypted chat and payment capabilities in its wallet. One of the most widely used crypto wallets is extending its functionality to a “superapp”: users can communicate and transfer funds directly within the app, without leaving the ecosystem. This move suggests a future where billions use crypto without needing to understand the term “blockchain.”
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YouTube introduces PYUSD for creator payments. The platform has added PayPal’s stablecoin as a monetisation option. This is more significant for the market than it may seem: a connection between a leading video platform, major fintech, and a stablecoin opens direct on-chain settlements for content creators.
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ThirdWeb contracts and real risks of smart contracts. A co-founder of Espresso reported a theft of about $30,000 in cryptocurrency due to a vulnerability in a ThirdWeb contract. This serves as another reminder that the risks associated with smart contracts aren’t theoretical; any on-chain infrastructure necessitates audits, bug bounties, and deployment discipline.
How to trade and where to invest now
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Acknowledge the cycle stage. Bitcoin is at historical highs with rising regulatory and macro risks, yet strong positions from long-term holders indicate this is the end of the bull phase, where volatility becomes an asset in itself.
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Differentiating speculation and infrastructure. XRP, JPMorgan’s on-chain bonds, PYUSD on YouTube, and World App represent infrastructure stories that may endure several cycles. It’s wiser to evaluate them not by tomorrow’s price but by their degree of integration into the real economy.
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Monitor real cash flows. Where actual inflows and revenues exist (ETFs, tokenised debt, sports, content platforms), there is the most resilient demand. Conversely, where only narratives and margin longs thrive, expect the most painful corrections.
The market is entering a new phase: infrastructure and tokenisation become the norm for traditional finances, while the speculative layer of crypto grapples with constraints from interest rates, quantum risks, and political decisions. For traders and investors, it’s a time for careful selection of what will endure the next cycle.
