The cryptocurrency market spent Friday in a holding pattern, with Bitcoin inching up just 0.68% to trade around $91,588, while the broader market cap slipped 0.41% to $3.10 trillion. It’s the kind of sideways action you’d expect after a harrowing month in crypto history, as traders catch their breath and consider their next moves.
The mixed signals from the charts
Bitcoin’s inability to decisively break above $92,000 reflects the current mood. On paper, movements are tepid—less than 1% in either direction. However, a deeper look reveals that 78% of coins lost value in the past 24 hours, with bears in firm control. Ethereum faced a similar fate, dropping 1.21% to hover around $3,000, although it managed to hold that crucial psychological level as exchange outflows suggest some underlying accumulation.
The top gainers highlight the familiar market predicament: Turbo surged 41.72%, Safe jumped 15.20%, and Basic Attention Token also marked a win. In contrast, MemeCore faced a serious downturn with a 34.83% plunge, underscoring how swiftly enthusiasm for meme coins can turn sour. The Pi Network bucked the trend, showing a 7.84% gain amid debates about a potential Pi ETF.
Tom Lee’s recalibration: from moonshot to measured optimism
Enter Tom Lee from Fundstrat, who has recalibrated his ambitious predictions. After famously forecasting a $250,000 Bitcoin by 2025, he’s now suggesting a more reserved target of between $150,000 to $200,000 by year-end. This shift reflects his assessment of market volatility and recent October liquidations.
Lee still cites structural tailwinds like the halving cycles and a potentially crypto-friendly U.S. administration as positive signals. He points to corporate adopters such as MicroStrategy as key indicators of rising institutional demand. Nonetheless, he remains cautious, characterising his original $250,000 target as a possibility rather than a certainty, though expressing confidence that Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 before December closes.
The macro backdrop shifts under crypto’s feet
U.S. markets closed early for Thanksgiving on Friday, leaving crypto trading somewhat isolated. Without signals from the stock market, volatility stayed low and volumes thinned out. However, the greater macro narrative concerns the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rates.
Odds of a December rate cut have surged to 87%, a shift that could energise risk appetite and encourage interest in altcoins. This thinking also applies to tokens like XRP, Chainlink, and Cardano, which traders eye as plays on potential liquidity shifts. Meanwhile, Monero gained 5%, while Dogecoin managed to hold an 8.25% rally despite broader market weakness.
Regulatory turbulence and security warnings
While excitement around price movements has quieted, the regulatory landscape remains active. Switzerland delayed automatic crypto tax data-sharing until at least 2027, a boon for privacy-conscious users. Conversely, the European Union has tightened data-sharing protocols for crypto firms, putting pressure on compliance processes.
On the security front, South Korea linked a $30 million hack of Upbit to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, illustrating the geopolitical dimensions of crypto crime. Additionally, issues arose with a Solana browser extension named “Crypto Copilot,” which was found diverting user funds via secret trades, spotlighting the need for improved security practices in crypto custody.
Institutional machinery grinds forward
Despite the market’s fluctuations, institutional infrastructure continues to expand. Nasdaq seeks permission to quadruple options limits on the iShares Bitcoin Trust, signalling institutional demand for enhanced hedging capabilities. Spot Bitcoin ETFs reported a modest $21 million inflow on November 26, breaking a streak of outflows, albeit at a slow pace.
BitMine’s $44 million expansion of its Ethereum treasury holdings reflects the long-term confidence among institutional players, as does the Bhutanese government’s active staking of its ETH holdings.
The technical setup ahead
Ethereum’s rapid decline in exchange supply signals bullish sentiment, indicating that hodlers are withdrawing coins rather than preparing to sell. For Bitcoin, tracking key fair value gaps could suggest a fresh upward momentum if prevailing conditions shift. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 25, labelled as “Extreme Fear,” which historically corresponds with potential buying opportunities in crypto.
Friday’s options expiry revealed open interest clustering near max pain levels, indicating traders anticipate further consolidation before any definitive movement. This suggests a likely defence of the $90,000 support while testing resistance around $92,000 to $93,000 in the following days.
What to watch
Keep an eye on the upcoming JUP token unlock, which represents 0.76% of supply or around $12.5 million. While minor, it could exert selling pressure. More importantly, watch how Bitcoin behaves if it breaches $92,000 decisively. A successful breakout could persuade sceptics that a year-end rally, as suggested by Lee, is indeed on the horizon.
For now, the crypto market is cautiously doing what it knows best in these uncertain times—waiting, watching, and quietly positioning. Volatility hasn’t vanished; it’s merely holding its breath.
