Crypto markets find footing as Bitcoin hints at a bottom, while flows and regulators tug the tape
Bitcoin spent Monday trying to look casual after a weekend slide that rattled even hardened holders. It changed hands near $66,860, up about 0.4% from Sunday’s low, while traders picked through the wreckage of a monster options expiry and a sudden wobble in spot ETF demand.
Bernstein’s analysts, never shy with a big number, said Bitcoin has “likely bottomed” and kept a $150,000 target for 2026. That matters less as prophecy and more as permission. Meanwhile, after a bruising quarter, investors are looking for any sign that selling pressure has turned from purposeful to merely mechanical.
However, the market’s most immediate suspect sits in plain sight. Deribit’s quarterly expiry on 27 March came in at about $14.16bn notional, one of the year’s largest. Dealers who sold options tend to hedge dynamically. Therefore, as price moved, they adjusted in ways that can amplify the drift towards “max pain”. Traders pegged that zone around $74,000 to $75,000, which left Bitcoin feeling magnetised in the wrong direction as spot slipped away.
Once that positioning clears, price often behaves more like itself. Some desks note Bitcoin finishes within roughly 5% of max pain a majority of the time, which helps explain why bargain hunters arrived as weekend liquidity thinned. Still, it is hard to call anything a “bottom” when macro risk appetite keeps coughing.
The next few sessions: bounce maths versus damage control
Forecasts for early April now split into two camps. On one side sit the technicians, eyeing a rebound towards $69,770 by 1 April and potentially $73,662 by 3 April if momentum returns. On the other sits the “break glass” crowd, warning that support between $69,378 and $71,840 could prove fragile, and that a decisive loss of confidence could drag Bitcoin towards $50,000.
Meanwhile, sentiment has turned almost theatrically bleak. The Fear and Greed gauge printed 9, deep in “extreme fear”, which often appears near capitulation. Yet it is not a timing tool. Therefore, traders still need to respect levels, not vibes.
Year to date, Bitcoin remains down about 15.8%. Even so, leverage has not vanished. Bitfinex data showed longs around 79,000 BTC, suggesting larger players have not abandoned the upside narrative, even if they have stopped chasing it.
ETF flows: the easy bid falters
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had provided a dependable drip of support, finally blinked. Friday brought roughly $296m of net outflows, snapping a four week inflow run. Ark’s flagship fund took about $30m of withdrawals, while the broader complex saw about $171m drained in the same stretch.
Those numbers matter because they translate into real spot selling or, at minimum, less spot buying. Meanwhile, macro has grown less forgiving after a sharp wobble in US equities. When stocks de risk, crypto usually does not get a free pass.
Korea’s mega deal drags, as regulators stare at concentration risk
Across the Pacific, South Korea’s proposed Naver Financial tie up with Upbit operator Dunamu, valued around 20tn won, has slipped towards a September target as scrutiny thickens. The Korea Fair Trade Commission has asked for more materials, and the statutory review path looks set to stretch beyond the current timetable.
A key sticking point is ownership concentration. Dunamu chairman Song Chi hyung’s stake of 19.5%, plus 10% held by vice chairman Kim Hyung nyeon, would push combined influence to 29.5%, above ceilings applied to major shareholders. However, constitutional law scholars have argued the relevant cap may be unconstitutional, citing property rights and excessive restriction. If regulators accept that logic, the deal’s roadblock could soften. If they do not, it becomes a test case for how far Korea will let Big Tech fuse with crypto market plumbing.
Other movers on the board
Ethereum’s ecosystem offered its own signal, after the Ethereum Foundation staked about $46m worth of ETH. Elsewhere, prediction markets reportedly surged, activity jumping 2,800% amid geopolitical nerves. Meanwhile, Solana traders watched a bearish flag setup take shape as the broader market’s risk bid cooled. Governance and treasury management also stayed in focus, with Lido floating an LDO buyback funded by 10,000 stETH, and Aave pushing onto OKX’s X Layer.
Policy noise returns to the foreground
Regulation also pressed in. An abrupt change in Washington, with Trump’s “crypto czar” David Sacks exiting his role, removed a visible advocate for lighter touch policy. Meanwhile, Canada introduced proposals to ban crypto campaign donations, while Senator Elizabeth Warren pressed the Commerce Department about security reviews tied to Bitmain. The CLARITY Act, pitched as cover for DeFi developers, remains stalled, which keeps legal uncertainty as a permanent background hiss.
By the numbers
- $66,860: Bitcoin’s level cited in Monday trade
- $14.16bn: notional tied to 27 March Deribit quarterly options expiry
- $74,000 to $75,000: max pain zone traders watched into expiry
- $296m: Friday net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs
- 20tn won: rough value cited for the Naver Financial Dunamu deal
Key takeaways
- Post expiry flows can flip quickly, so watch whether BTC reclaims $69,378 to $71,840 on strong volume.
- ETF outflows weaken the spot bid, therefore bounces may stall sooner than in January style melt ups.
- Keep $74,000 to $75,000 on the map as a gravity zone, not a promise.
- Altcoins remain beta trades, so weakness in BTC structure may hit SOL and high flyers first.
- Korea’s Naver Dunamu saga is a live signal for Asia’s regulatory tolerance for crypto market scale.
